NEWS
Triple Crown Preview: Kentucky Derby candidates
Posted: Saturday, April 28, 2001
Based on a Thoroughbred Times poll conducted April 16, following are profiles of 15 leading contenders to the Kentucky Derby written by staff writer John Harrell
Point Given
HE arrived at Churchill Downs as the horse with the proverbial battery on his shoulders. Try to knock it off, and he will show you why he has never finished worse than second in eight lifetime starts.
This Thunder Gulch colt is expected to go off as the heavy favorite in the Kentucky Derby (G1), despite the fact that his presence has not scared the field down to a size that one starting gate can accommodate. But he sure did put the zap on his peers in Southern California, beating them so handily in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and San Felipe Stakes (G2) that Jamaican Rum will probably be the only other Derby starter either race produces.
Every factor seems to point toward Derby success. His trainer, Bob Baffert, has won the race twice. His jockey, Gary Stevens, has won it three times, including a triumph aboard his sire, Thunder Gulch, in 1995. He has already proven he can handle the surface, running second to Macho Uno in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Need more evidence? Well, there is also his versatile running style; he can drop far back and uncork a devastating rally or lay just off the pace and strike with every bit as much tenacity.
If he gets a good, clean trip and Stevens can place him where he wants early in the race, Point Given will be very difficult to overcome late in the race.
Millennium Wind
THE Cryptoclearance colt is half brother to 1999 Horse of the Year and Kentucky Derby winner Charismatic, and both were bred at Parrish Hill Farm. That is pretty much where the similarities end.
Charismatic's connections were willing to lose him for a $62,500 tag just three months before the Derby. Since breaking his maiden in his career debut, Millennium Wind has never run in anything but graded stakes. Charismatic thrived on racing and made 14 starts before the Derby. Millennium Wind has been nagged by foot problems and will be making just his sixth lifetime start entering the Derby.
There is one trait the two share, though-quality. Millennium Wind has proven his ability against the best of his generation, losing by just one length to Point Given while making his second career start in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) last December. David Hofmans, worried about the colt's feet, has spaced his races out at three. But his foot problems appeared to be disappearing in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), when he led all the way to win by 5 1/4 lengths. It will be interesting to see how Millennium Wind handles Churchill Downs, which can sometimes be hard on horses with sensitive feet.
The Blue Grass performance also added a sentimental edge to Millennium Wind's Derby appearance, with ageless wonder Laffit Pincay Jr. taking over in the saddle. Imagine the roar at Churchill if Pincay, now 54, can win his second Derby 17 years after tasting success aboard Swale.
Monarchos
HE started his three-year-old season in the maiden ranks, just like a certain three-year-old named Fusaichi Pegasus did last year. Both even ended up in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), which Fusaichi Pegasus won while Monarchos ... well, he did not.
But it is hard to draw definite conclusions from Monarchos's second-place performance in the Wood. On the plus side, the race set up for Congaree and Monarchos finished well, rallying to within 2 3/4 lengths off the winner while not being punished down the stretch. On the negative side, jockey Jorge Chavez had to work over Monarchos good down the backside just to stay in touch with the leaders. That was not what you would expect from a colt who inhaled his Florida Derby (G1) rivals on the far turn with consummate ease.
Monarchos's Wood performance means he enters the Derby with a lifetime record of 3-and-0 at Gulfstream Park and 0-for-3 everywhere else. He rallied to run third in a sprint maiden at Churchill Downs last year-5 1/4 lengths behind future stakes runner Dream Run-giving evidence that he can handle the Churchill surface.
Perhaps the most amazing aspect of Monarchos's presence is that he will be the only Derby starter for owner John Oxley and trainer John Ward Jr. after their Holiday Thunder and Hero's Tribute fell by the wayside.
Congaree
Trainer Bob Baffert's latest Kentucky Derby adventure appeared strong enough when only Point Given was in the mix. Add Congaree into the equation following his Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) performance, and Baffert will enter the Derby with as strong a hand as one will find this side of Citation and Coaltown.
Always highly regarded by Baffert, Congaree survived breaking several ribs at birth, contracting pneumonia when he was weaned, and having a knee chip removed last year. He has emerged as a powerful, promising three-year-old. Maiden and allowance victories in California were followed up by a resounding 2 3/4-length victory over Monarchos in the Wood Memorial. The race set up for him that day with his stalking style, and jockey Victor Espinoza wisely made an early move to keep Richly Blended from getting an easy, early lead.
For all the enthusiasm over his performance, however, remember that it is extremely rare to find a horse this lightly raced in the winner's circle at Churchill Downs on Derby day. The last Derby winner making his fifth lifetime start in the run for the roses was Exterminator in 1919.
Baffert sent out undefeated Indian Charlie for his fifth start in the 1998 Derby; he finished third as the favorite and never ran again. Like Congaree, Indian Charlie missed most of his two-year-old season because he had a knee chip removed. And, like Congaree, Indian Charlie made his stakes debut in his fourth start, winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Dollar Bill
He has his own Web site, a Racing Hall of Fame jockey on his back (Pat Day), and a graded stakes victory over the Churchill Downs surface. What more could Dollar Bill want?
Well, some racing luck would help. His Louisiana Derby (G2) effort was remarkable, recovering to finish fourth, beaten 2 1/4 lengths, after being nearly knocked to the ground in the upper stretch. His Blue Grass Stakes (G1) performance, despite losing by seven lengths to Millennium Wind, was also notable given that he had to close from far back on a speed-favoring track.
Before good fortune started to elude him, Dollar Bill was shaping up to be one of the most promising members of this year's crop. He bounced back from a tenth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) to record an easy score in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill. His easy victory in February in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds suggested good things for the rest of the year.
Remember that recent Derbys have been kind to three-year-olds that have fought gamely against circumstance in their final Derby preps. Silver Charm won the 1997 Derby after gutting out a speed duel to finish second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Real Quiet finished second the next year in the Santa Anita Derby, closing stoutly against a speed-favoring bias before finding Churchill Downs to his liking a start later.
Balto Star
BALTO STAR is perhaps the biggest mystery heading into this year's Kentucky Derby. He has been an unholy terror in winning four of five starts this year, those victories coming by a combined 40 1/2 lengths. On the other hand, while the best of his generation has been knocking heads with one another, he has feasted on the likes of Jamaican Rum, Son of Rocket, Halo's Stride, and Mongoose in the Turfway Spiral Stakes (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G2). His front-running style will be given a severe test early in the Derby and it will be interesting to see how he handles facing such colts as Point Given and Millennium Wind turning for home. Geldings have been shut out of the Derby for 72 years, since Clyde Van Dusen.
Street Cry
Given that its members have won practically every other major race in the world, one would expect that eventually the Maktoum family of Dubai will win the Kentucky Derby. For the third consecutive year, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum's Godolphin Racing is at the Derby, and he is getting closer to having a serious contender in Louisville. Street Cry (Ire) is a product of Godolphin's first attempt to race two-year-olds in North America in order to identify classic runners, and the Machiavellian colt is a solid runner with plenty of United States back-class. He needs to prove he can finish a race, however, having hung in last year's Norfolk Stakes (G2) and Del Mar Futurity (G2) and this year's UAE Derby (UAE-G3).
Songandaprayer
THE son of Unbridled's Song has developed a bad race-good race pattern as a three-year-old, with the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) marking a return to good form. Not a good omen with the Kentucky Derby coming up next. Also note that jockey Edgar Prado is sticking with Thunder Blitz, who had never started in stakes company before winning the Flamingo Stakes (G3). A solid colt blessed with a high-profile owner (former basketball star Bobby Hurley) and a Grade 1 victory that will look attractive when he retires to stud. But it is hard to envision Songandaprayer getting 1 1/4 miles, and he was, quite frankly, a distant second best to Millennium Wind in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Express Tour
EXPRESS TOUR is the leading money earner in this year's Kentucky Derby field, courtesy of a $1.2-million payday for winning the United Arab Emirates Derby (UAE-G3). Purchased privately by Godolphin after sweeping the Florida Stallion Stakes series at Calder Race Course last year, Express Tour fought off the challenge of stablemate Street Cry (Ire) to win the UAE Derby. But questions accompany the colt to Louisville. He missed several days of training in mid-April at Churchill Downs because of a bruised left front foot, always a negative leading up to a race that leaves little margin for error. Questions over the colt's ability to get 1 1/4 miles also linger. May be simply setting the table for his stablemate.
Thunder Blitz
Trainer Joe Orseno received two juvenile sons of Holy Bull from Adena Springs's Florida training center last spring. One of them, Macho Uno, won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and was two-year-old champion. But it is the other one, Thunder Blitz, who will represent the stable in the Derby. He has won just twice in eight starts but was impressive in winning the Flamingo Stakes (G3), and his record might be better if he had not run into so many buzz saws in Gulfstream Park allowance races this winter (Invisible Ink, Monarchos, and Distilled, in respective races). His running style suggests he will be running at the end like a good dark horse should.
Invisible Ink
THIS colt had a bit of the wise guy-runner to him after a successful winter campaign at Gulfstream Park that included two allowance victories and a troubled third-place performance in the Florida Derby (G1). Had his stature lowered, however, by a fourth-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Probably was closer to the pace than he would have liked that day, as Keeneland Race Course's speed bias often forces a change in running styles. Like his son, Thunder Gulch ran fourth in the Blue Grass before winning the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes (G1). Time will tell if Invisible Ink can emulate his daddy.
Fifty Stars
FIFTY STARS must be given healthy respect for defeating Millennium Wind and Dollar Bill in the Louisiana Derby (G2), though much of that victory could be attributed to avoiding the demolition derby unfolding at the top of the lane. His late run was ineffective against Percy Hope in the Lone Star Derby, but he was chasing slower fractions at Lone Star Park. Usually stone-cold closers struggle in the Kentucky Derby because of traffic, but if the Derby comes up with 15 or 16 starters, he may have more room for maneuvering. Trainer Steve Asmussen arrived at Churchill Downs last year with Snuck In but passed on the race to await the Preakness Stakes (G1).
A P Valentine
It is pretty amazing everything that has happened with A P Valentine in the course of just seven career starts-including a $15-million syndication deal with Coolmore Stud, bucked shins in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), and a track-record performance at Hialeah Park. Trainer Nick Zito-a two-time Kentucky Derby winner-has kept faith in the A.P. Indy colt, who he referred to last fall as perhaps the best horse he has ever trained. Has been spectacularly good and easily forgettable during his brief career. Who knows which A P Valentine will show up at Churchill Downs on May 5.
Distilled
One of several Kentucky Derby contenders who seems to run his best when given license to run early, Distilled simply ran off from the Illinois Derby (G2) field early and was too far in front to track down late. Interesting that Todd Pletcher has two Derby contenders who like to run this way (Balto Star is the other). The Illinois Derby was the Hennessy colt's stakes debut after nine starts in maiden and allowance company. Could be the most experienced Derby starter if he runs, but his performance in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2) on April 21 at Keeneland Race Course may dictate whether the Derby or the Preakness Stakes (G1) is his next.
Jamaican Rum
Ask people who were watching the Hill Rise Handicap on January 6 which three-year-old out of the race would end up in the Kentucky Derby, and most would have said Startac. Instead, Jamaican Rum earned a trip to Kentucky thanks to a late rally for second in the Arkansas Derby (G2). It was a solid enough rally, but he was nowhere near Balto Star at the finish and there were no Kentucky Derby-caliber runners behind him. Closing style could be effective at Churchill Downs, given the number of speedsters most likely to get in the starting gate, but this colt may lack the back-class to take advantage of it.
