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Posted: Saturday, April 28, 2001

Triple Crown Preview: Kentucky Derby candidates

Point Given

HE arrived at Churchill Downs as the horse with the proverbial battery on his shoulders. Try to knock it off, and he will show you why he has never finished worse than second in eight lifetime starts.

This Thunder Gulch colt is expected to go off as the heavy favorite in the Kentucky Derby (G1), despite the fact that his presence has not scared the field down to a size that one starting gate can accommodate. But he sure did put the zap on his peers in Southern California, beating them so handily in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and San Felipe Stakes (G2) that Jamaican Rum will probably be the only other Derby starter either race produces.

Every factor seems to point toward Derby success. His trainer, Bob Baffert, has won the race twice. His jockey, Gary Stevens, has won it three times, including a triumph aboard his sire, Thunder Gulch, in 1995. He has already proven he can handle the surface, running second to Macho Uno in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Need more evidence? Well, there is also his versatile running style; he can drop far back and uncork a devastating rally or lay just off the pace and strike with every bit as much tenacity.

If he gets a good, clean trip and Stevens can place him where he wants early in the race, Point Given will be very difficult to overcome late in the race.

Millennium Wind

THE Cryptoclearance colt is half brother to 1999 Horse of the Year and Kentucky Derby winner Charismatic, and both were bred at Parrish Hill Farm. That is pretty much where the similarities end.

Charismatic's connections were willing to lose him for a $62,500 tag just three months before the Derby. Since breaking his maiden in his career debut, Millennium Wind has never run in anything but graded stakes. Charismatic thrived on racing and made 14 starts before the Derby. Millennium Wind has been nagged by foot problems and will be making just his sixth lifetime start entering the Derby.

There is one trait the two share, though-quality. Millennium Wind has proven his ability against the best of his generation, losing by just one length to Point Given while making his second career start in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) last December. David Hofmans, worried about the colt's feet, has spaced his races out at three. But his foot problems appeared to be disappearing in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), when he led all the way to win by 5 1/4 lengths. It will be interesting to see how Millennium Wind handles Churchill Downs, which can sometimes be hard on horses with sensitive feet.

The Blue Grass performance also added a sentimental edge to Millennium Wind's Derby appearance, with ageless wonder Laffit Pincay Jr. taking over in the saddle. Imagine the roar at Churchill if Pincay, now 54, can win his second Derby 17 years after tasting success aboard Swale.

Monarchos

HE started his three-year-old season in the maiden ranks, just like a certain three-year-old named Fusaichi Pegasus did last year. Both even ended up in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), which Fusaichi Pegasus won while Monarchos ... well, he did not.

But it is hard to draw definite conclusions from Monarchos's second-place performance in the Wood. On the plus side, the race set up for Congaree and Monarchos finished well, rallying to within 2 3/4 lengths off the winner while not being punished down the stretch. On the negative side, jockey Jorge Chavez had to work over Monarchos good down the backside just to stay in touch with the leaders. That was not what you would expect from a colt who inhaled his Florida Derby (G1) rivals on the far turn with consummate ease.

Monarchos's Wood performance means he enters the Derby with a lifetime record of 3-and-0 at Gulfstream Park and 0-for-3 everywhere else. He rallied to run third in a sprint maiden at Churchill Downs last year-5 1/4 lengths behind future stakes runner Dream Run-giving evidence that he can handle the Churchill surface.

Perhaps the most amazing aspect of Monarchos's presence is that he will be the only Derby starter for owner John Oxley and trainer John Ward Jr. after their Holiday Thunder and Hero's Tribute fell by the wayside.

Congaree

Trainer Bob Baffert's latest Kentucky Derby adventure appeared strong enough when only Point Given was in the mix. Add Congaree into the equation following his Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) performance, and Baffert will enter the Derby with as strong a hand as one will find this side of Citation and Coaltown.

Always highly regarded by Baffert, Congaree survived breaking several ribs at birth, contracting pneumonia when he was weaned, and having a knee chip removed last year. He has emerged as a powerful, promising three-year-old. Maiden and allowance victories in California were followed up by a resounding 2 3/4-length victory over Monarchos in the Wood Memorial. The race set up for him that day with his stalking style, and jockey Victor Espinoza wisely made an early move to keep Richly Blended from getting an easy, early lead.

For all the enthusiasm over his performance, however, remember that it is extremely rare to find a horse this lightly raced in the winner's circle at Churchill Downs on Derby day. The last Derby winner making his fifth lifetime start in the run for the roses was Exterminator in 1919.

Baffert sent out undefeated Indian Charlie for his fifth start in the 1998 Derby; he finished third as the favorite and never ran again. Like Congaree, Indian Charlie missed most of his two-year-old season because he had a knee chip removed. And, like Congaree, Indian Charlie made his stakes debut in his fourth start, winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Dollar Bill

He has his own Web site, a Racing Hall of Fame jockey on his back (Pat Day), and a graded stakes victory over the Churchill Downs surface. What more could Dollar Bill want?

Well, some racing luck would help. His Louisiana Derby (G2) effort was remarkable, recovering to finish fourth, beaten 2 1/4 lengths, after being nearly knocked to the ground in the upper stretch. His Blue Grass Stakes (G1) performance, despite losing by seven lengths to Millennium Wind, was also notable given that he had to close from far back on a speed-favoring track.

Before good fortune started to elude him, Dollar Bill was shaping up to be one of the most promising members of this year's crop. He bounced back from a tenth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) to record an easy score in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill. His easy victory in February in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds suggested good things for the rest of the year.

Remember that recent Derbys have been kind to three-year-olds that have fought gamely against circumstance in their final Derby preps. Silver Charm won the 1997 Derby after gutting out a speed duel to finish second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Real Quiet finished second the next year in the Santa Anita Derby, closing stoutly against a speed-favoring bias before finding Churchill Downs to his liking a start later.

Balto Star

BALTO STAR is perhaps the biggest mystery heading into this year's Kentucky Derby. He has been an unholy terror in winning four of five starts this year, those victories coming by a combined 40 1/2 lengths. On the other hand, while the best of his generation has been knocking heads with one another, he has feasted on the likes of Jamaican Rum, Son of Rocket, Halo's Stride, and Mongoose in the Turfway Spiral Stakes (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G2). His front-running style will be given a severe test early in the Derby and it will be interesting to see how he handles facing such colts as Point Given and Millennium Wind turning for home. Geldings have been shut out of the Derby for 72 years, since Clyde Van Dusen.

Street Cry

Given that its members have won practically every other major race in the world,

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