Kentucky Derby starters enter May with less seasoning than in the past-for a variety of reasons

When trainer Harvey Vanier sent out his first Kentucky Derby starter, Admiral's Shield, in 1970, he was not afraid to give his colt a little foundation before taking on the leading three-year-olds of his generation going 1 1/4 miles.

In an era when the Blue Grass Stakes was nine days before the Derby and the Derby Trial Stakes was only four days before the main event, Vanier sent Admiral's Shield out in both races. Seventh in the Blue Grass, Admiral's Shield was wheeled right back in the Trial, closing to win the one-mile event by one length.

Just to make sure the colt was fit enough, Vanier had jockey Jimmy Nichols gallop Admiral's Shield out 1 1/8 miles in 1:53.80.

Five Derby Trial starters would start in the run for the roses, but Admiral's Shield was the only one to run in the Blue Grass.

In the end, all the seasoning did not matter. Admiral's Shield encountered serious traffic problems when Holy Land fell in front of him on the far turn, and he could not start his late run until the early stretch; he rallied to finish sixth behind winner Dust Commander.

"If I hadn't had a cowboy rider, 'Cowboy' Jimmy Nichols, on him, he probably wouldn't have straightened up and stayed in the race," Vanier said recently.

More than a quarter-century later, a racing regimen similar to that of Admiral's Shield would be regarded as foolhardy at best. And, in a very real way, the likes of Admiral's Shield-hard-knocking horses with iron constitutions-are a thing of the past.

"He was a big-sized horse," Vanier said. "He was sound and strong in his makeup. He was no weakling, and that's what you needed."

Modern times

While no one is ready to call the modern-day Thoroughbred a weakling, it is clear that a new era has dawned in the way horses are brought up to the Kentucky Derby (G1). A solid introduction to the sport as a juvenile followed by a steady diet of Derby preps no longer is the road most traveled to the classics.

Instead, classic prospects are being put away for the season once they show potential as juveniles and usually average three or perhaps four starts at three before being thrust into the Derby.

In 1961, the 15 starters in the Kentucky Derby each averaged 6.73 starts at three before the race, and two starters (Loyal Son and Light Talk) made ten pre-Derby sophomore starts. Last year's 19-horse field averaged slightly more than half as many pre-Derby starts at three, 3.63. The starters with the most aggressive campaigns-Impeachment, Wheelaway, and Ronton-made five starts each before the first Saturday in May. Godolphin Racing's China Visit ran just once.

Last year is not a one-year aberration. The average number of total pre-Derby starts has been shrinking gradually over the last 40 years, from 20.85 starts in 1960 to 12.55 in '83 to 6.79 last year. The 15 three-year-olds most readily identified as 2001 Derby candidates as of April 17-Point Given, Monarchos, Express Tour, Millennium Wind, Balto Star, Street Cry (Ire), Congaree, Fifty Stars, Dollar Bill, A P Valentine, Songandaprayer, Distilled, Thunder Blitz, Jamaican Rum, and Invisible Ink-have had a combined 105 career starts, or seven per horse.

Clearly a new era has emerged in Kentucky Derby training techniques.

Throughout the early part of the 20th century, in particular1910 through the early '30s, Derby starters made no more than a handful of three-year-old starts before the Derby. The only winter racing in that era took place in the South, and many prominent Eastern stables chose to keep their horses in the north during the winter and train on the farm. The 30 Derby winners between 1910 and '39 made a combined 55 starts (an average of 1.8 starts) at three before winning the Derby.

A seismic shift occurred in the 1940s when Calumet Farm and trainers Ben and Jimmy Jones rose to prominence. The Joneses were firm believers in winter racing, and the success of their methods influenced others. From 1940 through '69, the 30 Derby winners of that era had a combined 168 starts at three (an average of 5.6 starts) before the Derby.

Winter racing still holds sway with trainers in this new era of Derby training. But their prospects' races have become less frequent, with more rest between races. In 1989, the Blue Grass was moved back from its traditional spot on the Thursday before Derby week. All the major preps except the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2) are now wrapped up three weeks before the Derby, and the Derby Trial Stakes (G3) no longer is regarded as a Derby prep.

Faster, faster, faster

Why are classically inclined three-year-olds racing less these days? According to several Derby-winning trainers and notable historians of the race, several factors are emerging, including:

• Concerns over soundness;
• A shift in breeding away from stamina to speed;
• The influence of the Breeders' Cup; and
• A change in business principles.

One trainer who has closely followed the changes in training philosophies is two-time Derby winner Nick Zito. His first Derby starter, Thirty Six Red in 1990, came into the Derby with 11 career stars; he did not score his maiden victory until his seventh start. Zito's two Derby winners, Strike the Gold (1991) and Go for Gin ('94), are closer to the mold of a modern Derby horse; they made seven and nine starts, respectively, before the Derby.

Zito's last two Derby starters-Stephen Got Even and Adonis in 1999-are the prototypical modern Derby runners. The two combined had fewer lifetime starts (ten) than Thirty Six Red when they entered the Derby starting gate.

"The training philosophies are different. Time has changed things," Zito said. "Horses aren't as big or strong or sound as they used to be."

John Asher, Churchill Downs vice president of racing communications and a Derby historian, added: "There's a perception, which I think is very accurate, that the breed's not as hardy as it once was."

Racing Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas pointed to the emphasis in recent years on speed in the breeding shed, with the result that horses are faster but less durable.

"I think what U.S. racing has been emphasizing in the last 20 years is speed," Lukas said. "The two-year-old in training sales dictate that, and the two-year-olds are racing earlier in the year, and there's more emphasis on it.

We're breeding them faster, and usually that is detrimental to their long-term longevity.

"We're breeding brilliant milers, but that's what sells. Without stepping on any toes, I'd say the recent Belmont (Stakes [G1]) winners probably aren't as well received at the breeding shed as sires that produce a lot of two-year-old winners."

The sales, in particular juvenile sales where two-year-olds often must produce eighth-mile workouts faster than :11 to bring top dollar, have created a mindset that value must appreciate immediately, Zito said.

"There's a lot of pressure training horses these days, let's face it," Zito said. "There's a lot of things going on. Owners are buying horses at sales and want to get something out of it."

Everybody steps forward

One factor that has not changed is the desire to get into the Kentucky Derby. That yearning has created a paradox, according to Zito. Owners crave stakes success and want to be in the winner's circle, yet at the same time they want to conserve their horses as much as possible to keep them sound for the Derby. Zito said this contradiction explains in part why two-year-olds such as his own A P Valentine and Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner Millennium Wind were thrown into Grade 1 races after maiden victories at two last year.

"They're careful for the reason that you want to get there," Zito said. "Right or wrong, people will do anything to get in that position."

Lukas has won the Derby four times, doing it with experienced runners (Charismatic had 14 starts before the 1999 Derby and Thunder Gulch had nine career outings before the 1995 Derby) and less-seasoned three-year-olds (Grindstone and Winning Colors had 11 starts combined).

"The bottom line is, you must recognize that the horses dictate their own schedule," Lukas said. "If you don't, you're only fooling yourself."

Two-year-old racing and overall horse management have changed, Lukas said, because of the Breeders' Cup. For a two-year-old that shows talent early on, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) now join the Triple Crown as primary targets for their two- and three-year-old seasons. As such, trainers and owners have to be more careful picking their spots, Lukas said, because "instead of thinking May or June, you're thinking 14 months ahead."

"The Triple Crown's always going to be a prestigious event," he added, "but there's only so many peak performances in a horse's three-year-old year."

Slipping in some old school

Oddly enough, the 1998 and '99 Derbys were won by experienced runners. A year before Charismatic won the '99 Derby as the most experienced runner in the field, Real Quiet captured the Derby in his 13th lifetime start, making him that year's second-most experienced runner.

Last year's Derby, however, was won by Fusaichi Pegasus, who had run just once at two and was making his sixth career start in the Derby.

Asher suspects that the Fusaichi Pegasus example could become the model. He noted that the Mr. Prospector colt's extraordinary talent, combined with Neil Drysdale's astute, patient handling, was the perfect combination to bring Fusaichi Pegasus up to the Derby at the peak of his game.

"If he becomes the marker, he may be a bad one because he was a remarkable horse," Asher said. "Until we've had a few years to judge, I'd still prefer a horse like Point Given, who even though he's run sparingly at three has a solid foundation. Fusaichi Pegasus was a marvelous horse who was brilliantly handled."

The trend will probably not change this year. The most experienced potential Derby starter as of April 17 was Distilled with ten starts. Most Derby starters will enter the starting gate with a foundation of seven or eight starts. But Asher cautioned that trends have a tendency to be, well, trendy.

"If somebody comes in next year with 12 starts under his belt and wins, you'll see everybody running their two-year-olds in April the next year," he said.