Success breeds success. Long the motto of the Aga Khan's breeding operation, that circular sentence applies equally well with a slightly different emphasis to the careers of bloodstock agents, trainers, and horse sales.

Keeneland April highlights

• Average rises 8.8% to record $163,714
• Dixieland Band filly brings top price of $775,000
• Total receipts decline 19.5% to $14,898,000
• Median increases 19% to record $125,000
• Buy-backs stable at 37.7%

Past successes of bloodstock agent J. B. McKathan, principal McKathan client Bob Baffert, and graduates of the Keeneland April sale of two-year-olds in training combined to make the 2001 edition of the sale, held April 17, the most successful of any auction of juveniles so far this year.

McKathan, who selected Kentucky Derby (G1) winners Silver Charm and Real Quiet for Baffert clients, bought the highest-priced horse, and the recent graded stakes success of such horses as 2000 Grade 1 winner Trippi helped to push the sale's average price up 8.8% to a record $163,714. That rise in average was in marked contrast to stability or modest declines at other major 2001 juvenile sales.

Still, the sale's overall numbers were not all that encouraging and reflected the current juvenile market's unforgiving realities, which were apparent at Fasig-Tipton's Calder sale and Barretts March. In an inflated 2000 yearling market, pinhookers simply were unable to buy as many high-quality horses with attractive pedigrees as in previous years. That has led to fewer horses on offer at juvenile sales this year, higher buy-back rates, and a significantly lower top end to the market, which were reflected in the Keeneland sale statistics:

• Number offered declined 25.1% to 146;
• Number sold declined 26% to 91;
• Total receipts declined 19.5% to $14,898,000;
• Buy-backs increased slightly from 36.9% to 37.7%;
• Top price declined 11.4% to $775,000.

On the other hand, there were a few positive signs similar to those generally obscured by the red ink flowing at other juvenile sales this year. Median rose 19% to a record $125,000, number of horses sold for $400,000 or more increased from seven to ten, and average prices for middle-market horses increased.

All those factors indicated that on the increasingly rare occasions when consignors were able to offer horses perceived as top quality, buyers were more than willing to offer pinhookers substantial profits.

Most successful

Best example of that willingness and of the unique potential for profit was a bay filly by Dixieland Band out of Honey Bee Gold, by Drone, offered by H. T. Stables, with Allen Jenkins as agent. Purchased by Jenkins in the name of his principal client, Canadian horseman Cam Allard, at the 1999 Keeneland November breeding stock for $285,000, the filly had been led out unsold after a final bid of $425,000 at the 2000 Keeneland July sale of selected yearlings and again at the 2000 Keeneland September yearling sale after the hammer dropped at $325,000.

A seemingly bad investment transmuted into a very good one in 10.20 seconds on April 9 in the first presale preview. When Allard's filly worked an eighth-mile on Keeneland Race Course's main track in that time with long, flowing strides, every good judge in the stands marked their catalogs. Back at Jenkins's barn, they found a lengthy, deep-shouldered, big-quartered filly with slightly upright pasterns who walked as beautifully as she galloped.

The filly was one of a half-dozen or so horses that attracted the attention of McKathan, but the Ocala-based horseman had been outbid on four or five other horses before she came into the ring two horses from the end. McKathan outlasted both Japanese and American interests to sign for the star filly in Baffert's name for $775,000. Allan R. Gilbert of Del Mar, California, a new Baffert client, will own her.

"I was pretty determined to get her anyway," McKathan said. "She was the one we were waiting for. The others were nice horses, but she was the one we really wanted.

"One thing that makes me love a filly like this is that she's out of a Drone mare. Look at the Kentucky Derby results. They go long. She looks fast, but she has a pedigree that should keep running. She's a really exciting filly."

Drone is broodmare sire of Kentucky Derby winners Grindstone and Charismatic, and the filly's dam is half sister to the dam of dual Horse of the Year Cigar.

"After the workout we felt like we had plenty of activity on her," Jenkins said. "She's a filly and not a colt, so we thought she'd go in the $500,000 range. I'm always the last dummy to know."

The top-priced filly embodied the paradigm of the juvenile sale market-a well-made, well-bred horse that worked fast. As usual, the other high-priced juveniles in the sale followed the same pattern.

The top-priced colt, a Pleasant Colony colt out of Patticake Blues, by Cure the Blues, who resembles his broodmare sire closely, also worked an eighth in :10.20 on April 9. Consigned by Ciaran Dunne's Wavertree Stables, the colt out of a half sister to three stakes winners by Pleasant Colony was purchased for $650,000 by Emmanuel de Seroux's Narvick International for the account of Sidney Port, Marsha Naify, and San Gabriel Investments.

"He has what I always call the three S's: size, speed, and scope," said de Seroux's wife, Laura, who will train the top colt. "We're very excited to have him."

The eight other juveniles to sell for $400,000 or more posted the following workout times for an eighth or a quarter-mile: :10, :21.60, :21.60 (on turf), :10.40, :22, :10.40, :10.80, and :21.60. All were by sires who were either already proven successes or promising freshmen from female families that ranged from weak to high class. All were outstanding physical specimens.

Statistical picture

As shown in the accompanying decile chart, the modest rises in prices were fairly consistent over the sale's whole range. Every decile posted small advances except for the bottom 20% of the sale. This result is more or less in line with results at other juvenile sales this year, where the top of the market has been generally down but the middle market has shown somewhat contradictory strength.

Pinhookers also did reasonably well, as shown in the accompanying chart of pinhooking returns. Pinhookers sold 60% of their offerings-about the minimum percentage to enable a profit-for a modest overall profit of $883,800. That figure, however, includes neither Keeneland's 4.5% sales commission nor the results of a very active aftermarket.

Niall Brennan Stables, agent, which sold the third-highest-priced horse of the sale, a powerful Gold Case filly for $535,000, led all consignors, selling 12 horses for $3,025,000. Unbridled led all sires with two sold averaging $310,000.

Eugene Melnyk, leading buyer of two-year-olds in 2000, paid $990,000 for three juveniles to lead all buyers. Japanese buyers provided an unexpected boost, concentrating as usual on the middle market and buying 16 horses for $2,840,000. At the same sale last year, Japanese buyers accounted for 18 horses for $3,762,000.

Although consignors may have done slightly better overall at Keeneland April than at other 2001 juvenile sales, they remain painted into an unenviable corner by the bloodstock market.

"It's the same thing as at other sales," said Nick de Meric, second-leading consignor with ten horses sold for $1,737,000. "They all tend to land on the same horses."

"It's a polarized market," said de Meric's partner in D & B Ventures, Pete Bradley. "There are no buyers for the mid-range horse, the $50,000 to $150,000 horse."

"Everybody's looking for the Grade 1 winners," de Meric said. "Nobody's willing to take what looks like a potential good allowance horse, the kind of horse that should be the backbone of the