NEWS
Thoroughbred Times Forum
Posted: Monday, February 07, 2000
No one ever said this business of forecasting the leading freshman sire was an easy game. Sometimes, even the experts are left a bit flat-footed.
Last year, when four experts were asked to name their selections as the most likely leading freshman sire of 1999, they came up with some excellent and reasonable choices, none of which was exactly on the money. In the two prior years in which pedigree and conformation experts were willing to go out on a limb and name that year's champion freshman, at least one hit the nail on the head. Alan Porter selected Gilded Time in 1997, and End Sweep was touted by Stanley Marcinkowski (his only pick) and by Equix Biomechanics (one in a group of six first choices) for 1998.
Last year's group of sires with their first foals on the racetrack posed some interesting choices, however. Do you go with a prominent young sire such as dual classic winner Tabasco Cat? Or do you hang your hat on a precocious youngster who was bred to a large book of mares? In general, the 1999 experts went with Tabasco Cat, and in time they may well be right. The Overbrook Farm stallion had a respectable first year, finishing sixth on the list of freshman stallions.
But the 1999 title went to another star of 1994, Cherokee Run, a champion sprinter who was leading freshman sire by a wide margin. He had neither an overly large first book (56 foals) nor a big reputation, but he was well managed by Jonabell Farm, where he stands, and had the champion two-year-old filly Chilukki in that first crop.
To say that the 1999 panel struck out would be grossly unfair, and their judgments may well seem prescient by the end of this year. But they generally missed the mark on Cherokee Run, who had two graded stakes winners (Silentlea was the other) and 1999 progeny earnings of $1,369,126.
Coming the closest was John Moynihan, a Lexington bloodstock agent and consultant who advises Robert and Beverly Lewis, among others. He advised the Lewises in their purchase of Charismatic, their 1999 Horse of the Year, as a weanling for $200,000. Last year, Moynihan placed Cherokee Run third (in a tie) on his list, so he earns a return engagement for this tough game of picking the top freshman. Joining him this year are Baden P. "Buzz" Chace, a veteran bloodstock adviser who helped select Breeders' Cup winners Unbridled's Song and champion sprinter Artax at auctions for client Ernie Paragallo; Richard Mulhall, The Thoroughbred Corp.'s racing manager who selected 1999 juvenile male champion Anees; and Dan Kenny, a bloodstock consultant based in Lexington.
This year's candidates for leading freshman sire are no less interesting or perplexing than last year's. Let the games begin.
Best of a good crop
Baden P. "Buzz" Chace learned the Thoroughbred industry from the ground up in various capacities, including training. He solidified his reputation as a judge of potential racehorses by selecting Unbridled's Song as a yearling at Saratoga for Ernie Paragallo, but he also has picked out many other stakes winners, including 1999 champion sprinter Artax.
My top picks to make some noise as freshman sires of two-year-olds this year would have to be the following:
1) Forest Wildcat
2) Hennessy
3) Honour and Glory
4) Maria's Mon
5) Pioneering
6) Unbridled's Song
7) Storm Creek
The Forest Wildcats are going to be early. They should be fast horses, very fast, sprinter types, like a Salt Lake or Carson City. Forest Wildcat would have been a fast two-year-old if he had been handled right. It is not his fault he did not win a stakes until he was five.
I think the Hennessy two-year-olds are going to be very precocious. He is by Storm Cat, and they may get a little more distance than a horse like Forest Wildcat.
Honour and Glory has a chance to have fast horses and maybe go on a little further and maybe have a chance to be turf horses later on. People should give them a little time and not get discouraged, and later in the year they will come on. Honour and Glory is out of a turf-bred mare and that will kick in later; so there is a little question mark about him as a pure freshman sire.
Maria's Mon-I think he will get runners. They are sound-looking, and I kind of like him.
Pioneering is a very well-bred horse, a half brother to Storm Cat by Mr. Prospector, and the yearlings I saw looked very promising; I really liked them. I bought two of them-a yearling and a weanling.
Unbridled's Song-I think they will be precocious but, like himself, the later on in the year, the better they will get. The yearlings were gangly early, but they got better and better later in the year. He has a very good chance to be a leading sire.
Storm Creek is another Storm Cat who is getting really good-looking, precocious-looking horses. I bought one Storm Creek and saw a lot of them, and I like them very much. They are precocious but have good minds. I think he has got a shot.
With this group, I think I am pretty safe.
I think this is a pretty good bunch of first-year sires. These horses were very, very competitive as two-year-olds, like Unbridled's Song, Maria's Mon, Hennessy, and Honour and Glory. Forest Wildcat did not get good until he was five, but he was hurt earlier and did not get a chance. I think it was a good crop of runners. These horses will carry their speed.
There are a lot of other horses like Gold Fever and A. P Jet that are not bad. I saw some good Peaks and Valleys, too.
But, when the smoke clears, Unbridled's Song will be my long-term pick.
Storm Cats rule
John F. Moynihan is a bloodstock agent whose John F. Moynihan Thoroughbred Services Inc. is based in Lexington. Moynihan did best of our four pundits last year, picking eventual leading freshman sire Cherokee Run as the third-best of 1999.
Following is a list of my selections for the leading freshman sires of 2000. My criteria for selection are based on the conformation and athleticism of the weanlings and yearlings I inspected both privately and at public auction in 1999.
1) Forest Wildcat and Hennessy
2) Unbridled's Song
3) Honour and Glory and Roar
4) Pioneering and Storm Creek
Leading my list this year are the two sons of Storm Cat-Forest Wildcat and Hennessy. I well remember Forest Wildcat in early February of his two-year-old year at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. selected two-year-olds in training sale in Miami. He had the fastest quarter-mile work of the sale and was extremely precocious. Forest Wildcat has passed on his "sprinter physique" found in most successful two-year-old runners, and I look for him to be well represented this year. What I like most about Forest Wildcat's offspring is that a lot of them look like offspring of Storm Cat himself. This has to be a positive sign.
Likewise, Hennessy was a great two-year-old with exceptional looks. He was well supported in his first book by Ashford Stud and other breeders with some great mares. Most of his offspring share his excellent hind conformation (hind leg and quarters) and this should enhance their chances to get to the races early and fast.
I believe at the end of 2001, when these two-year-olds have reached the end of their three-year-old season, it will be Unbridled's Song who will receive the most accolades from this freshman class. He was by far the most talented horse of his crop year. From a physical standpoint, he is one of the best-looking horses I have ever seen. However, I did not put Unbridled's Song ahead of Forest Wildcat and Hennessy because I question how well suited his offspring will be to early two-year-old racing. Although Unbridled's Song was very precocious, it is not the norm for the tall, scopy type of individual he tends to get. I believe the majority of his stock will excel when they start going two turns, which will not come until late in thei
