NEWS
Horn of plenty in juvenile sales
Posted: Tuesday, February 01, 2000
What have you done for me lately?
For sales of two-year-olds in training over the past several years, the answer to that question is plenty.
The most prominent recent graduate of an auction of two-year-olds in training is 1999 champion two-year-old filly Chilukki, but she is only one of 565 stakes winners and 156 group or graded stakes winners to emerge from the nine most important sales of two-year-olds in training over the last five years.
As shown in Table 1, which details the results of those nine sales from 1995-'99, the 10,444 horses sold at major juvenile auctions for $569-million during the last five years have already earned $486-million, with far more to come from graduates of the 1998 and 1999 sales.
Sales covered by Table 1 are Barretts March, Barretts May, Fasig-Tipton Calder, Fasig-Tipton Midlantic May, Keeneland April, Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. (OBSC) April, OBSC February, OBSC June, and OBSC March.
Table 1 details both the sales results and racing performances for all horses sold at those nine sales from 1995-'99. Obviously, graduates of 1999 sales have had only a limited opportunity to race so far, while a substantial number of graduates of '98 and some from earlier sales have yet to complete their racing careers.
Average price at the nine sales over this five-year period-the most expensive two-year-old sales in history-was $54,503, while average earnings to date for horses sold are $46,541.
Stakes winners will rise
As noted, the latter figure is bound to go up over the next few years as graduates of the sales continue to race, as will the 5.4% stakes winners and 1.5% group or graded stakes winners produced by the nine sales. Overall, 82.4% of juvenile sales graduates have started, and 59.2% have won.
Those figures already compare well with averages for the breed and even with averages for offspring of the top 1% of sires. (See averages for the breed in the stakes results section.) On average, 69.4% of all foals start, 44.8% win, 3.1% win stakes, and 0.63% win group or graded stakes.
Percentages of starters and winners (84.8% and 65.3% for top sires) are comparable, but percentages of stakes winners and group or graded winners are higher for top sires.
More significantly, racetrack results for juvenile sales graduates are also remarkably similar to racetrack results for graduates of the seven most important sales of yearlings. The bottom line in Table 1 summarizes the sales and racetrack results for California Thoroughbred Breeders' Association (CTBA) August, Fasig-Tipton July, Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Eastern Fall, Fasig-Tipton Saratoga, Keeneland July, Keeneland September, and OBSC August. That totals line summarizes the same foal crops covered by the juvenile sales table, yearling sales years 1994-'98.
Graduates of juvenile sales, who have already proved they can withstand initial training, include higher percentages of starters and winners. Overall percentage of stakes winners from juvenile sales is slightly higher and percentage of group or graded stakes winners slightly lower.
The distribution of results by sales price for juveniles in Table 1 shows that, in general, the higher the price of the horse, the better chance a buyer has of purchasing a stakes winner.
Seven-figure juveniles have produced 16.7% stakes winners, although the sample is very small (two stakes winners from 12 juveniles sold for $1-million or more). That number, of course, does not include Unbridled's Song, who was returned to his consignor after selling for $1.4-million at the 1995 Barretts March sale. Percentages of stakes and group or graded winners are progressively lower with almost every step down the price ladder.
Individual results
Individually, as shown in Table 2, results for the nine juvenile sales follow pretty much the expected pattern. Results are best for the four most prestigious and highest-priced selected sales-Barretts March, Fasig-Tipton Calder, Keeneland April, and OBSC February.
As it has for many years, OBSC February produces the highest percentage of stakes winners of any juvenile sale. OBSC February has consistently produced about 10% stakes winners or better throughout the 1990s.
The higher-priced Barretts March, Fasig-Tipton Calder, and Keeneland April sales, however, produce significantly higher percentages of group or graded stakes winners-2.7%, 2.7%, and 3.2%, respectively. Keeneland April has generally posted the highest percentage of group or graded stakes winners of any juvenile sale since its inception in 1993. Barretts May, Fasig-Tipton Midlantic May, and OBSC April, the second echelon of juvenile sales, produce approximately equal numbers of runners, winners, stakes winners, and group or graded winners.
Interestingly, buyers reap the best profit margins from the cheapest sales, at least in terms of racetrack earnings. Runners purchased at OBSC's April and June sales paid significant returns on their purchase prices at the racetrack. Of the higher-priced sales, only OBSC's February sale has produced runners that show a marginal profit on purchase price at the racetrack.
As shown in the accompanying list of major winners from juvenile sales during the time period under review, Barretts March and Fasig-Tipton Calder have done their job well, producing about equal numbers of genuinely top-class runners and major money earners. Neither of those sales (nor any other during those five years) can match OBSC February's feat of producing consecutive Horses of the Year in Favorite Trick (1997) and Skip Away ('98).
Barretts March's top quartet of Honour and Glory, Sharp Cat, Royal Anthem, and Yes It's True probably outrank the top four from any other sale. Fasig-Tipton Calder's current trio of 1999 juvenile graded winners, Chilukki, Circle of Life, and Greenwood Lake, however, could go a long way toward changing that perception in 1999.
With the 2000 juvenile sales season dawning, there is little reason to expect the racetrack performance of graduates of the major sales to change much over the next few years. It has, though, become more difficult for yearling-to-juvenile pinhookers to buy the horses they want as yearling sales averages have climbed rapidly over the last five years.
Always enterprising, several of the largest two-year-old consignors have turned to breeding more of their own product over the last few years. That is a more difficult project than picking out likely precocious juvenile sale prospects, so it will be interesting to see how racetrack results change over the next few years.
