The fifth visit by the Breeders' Cup to Churchill Downs will be hard-pressed to surpass the heroics of the previous four championship days, but magical things tend to happen when the event is held under the Louisville track's historic Twin Spires.

What day could top 1988's highlight reel wins by Alysheba, the unbeaten Personal Ensign, and the French filly Miesque? And do not forget the Wisconsin-bred D. Wayne Lukas, who trained three winners on the day and finished 1-2-3 in one event.

Subsequent renewals of the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs have etched the names of Arazi, Flanders, Da Hoss, and Awesome Again not only in Breeders' Cup history but also of racing lore.

It would be wonderful to forecast exactly which horses will take their turn in the Breeders' Cup spotlight on November 4, but that task will be tough enough on race day. But those prior renewals of the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs have provided some historical perspective that may aid in the search for this year's winners.

First, let's reacquaint ourselves with the racing surfaces at the home of the Kentucky Derby (G1). The main track is one mile in circumference and all races between six furlongs and a mile are run out of a chute that doglegs off the backstretch.

Clay added to track

The composition of the main track is sandy loam, but the surface has changed slightly since the 1998 Breeders' Cup because track superintendent Butch Lehr added some clay to the mix earlier this year.

Significant biases remain rare on the main track. The surface handles-and requires-a lot of water, and is at its best when there is regular rainfall.

Fortunately, that is rarely a problem in Kentucky in autumn. Should rain fall on Breeders' Cup day, do not fret unless you fancy a horse that absolutely detests wet going. The conventional wisdom among local horsemen is that a sloppy track at Churchill is as safe and fair as when the going is fast.

The seven-furlong turf course has matured beautifully since the Breeders' Cup was first held in Louisville in 1988. It has thrived through a summer with ample rain, and Lehr believes the footing has never been better. Closers win the highest percentage of races on the turf, but-as Buck's Boy proved in the 1998 Breeders' Cup Turf (G1)-a front-runner can get the job done in the right situation.

Two years ago, you were cautioned here to be wary of dismissing any Breeders' Cup contenders with significant home-court experience over the Louisville track.

The warning appears more valid when looking back on the results of '98. One reason for that concern is the ample supply of talented horses, including many Breeders' Cup contenders, now based much of the year at Churchill. And then there is the character of the main track. Most horses handle the footing, but horses that struggle with the surface could be in for major disappointment.

The 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), which attracted a field of horses that was dubbed by some as the greatest field in history, provides us with prime examples of both factors. The first two finishers in the race were Awesome Again and Silver Charm, who had finished in the same positions five months earlier in the Stephen Foster Handicap (G2).

An awesome 3-for-3

Awesome Again's victory was his third in as many starts over the Louisville track, and Silver Charm had won the 1997 Kentucky Derby. Both horses had trained over the track for several months during the year. Along with the top two finishers, fourth-place Victory Gallop, who was beaten just over a length, had finished second that year in the Kentucky Derby and was also based at Churchill.

But the '98 Classic favorite, Skip Away, was quite another story. He had struggled over the track in a 12th-place finish in the 1996 Kentucky Derby-one of the few poor efforts in his remarkable career-and fared no better in his return. He finished a nonthreatening sixth in the Classic, a disappointing end to a campaign that earned him Horse of the Year honors.

Need more? Two other 1998 winners-Silverbulletday in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and Escena in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1)-had each scored a pair of victories over the Louisville track earlier in the year.

Europeans failed to win a Breeders' Cup event at Churchill Downs in 1998, but foreign runners have thrived in Louisville in earlier outings, and the recent shutout looks like an aberration.

Europeans won two of the three prior runnings of the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) and Turf at Churchill Downs (the Filly and Mare Turf [G1] will make its Churchill Downs debut this year) and have even enjoyed success on the dirt. Only three Europeans have won dirt races in the 16 renewals of the Breeders' Cup, but two came at Churchill. Chances are that 1998 would be recalled in a different light by the Europeans had third-place Swain taken a ground-saving route in the Classic instead of his up-close and personal meeting with fans on the outer rail. Look for a European rebound in 2000.

Post positions

For the Breeders' Cup Mile, Juvenile (G1), and Juvenile Fillies, the post-position draw can be a crucial factor. Outside posts, especially those beyond the nine post, are a major disadvantage in all three races. The run from the starting gate to the first turn is very short-815 feet at a mile on grass and just 485 feet in the 1 1/16-mile juvenile races on the dirt. It is very difficult for horses breaking from outside posts to gain an early contending position, and they risk being hung very wide on the crucial run through the turn.

No horse has won the Mile from post nine or beyond-although it must be noted that the three horses that finished behind Da Hoss in 1998 broke from gates 14, 12, and 13. The Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies have each produced a single winner from beyond post nine. Arazi and Pleasant Stage each broke from post 14 in 1991.

The six-furlong distance of the Sprint actually has a distinctive twist at Churchill Downs because it is actually closer to 6 1/4 furlongs. The starting gate for six furlongs is located at the end of the mile chute, but the official starting point of the race actually is located 115 feet away from the three-quarter pole. The extra distance can make a disappointing difference to a front-running sprinter that has clicked off some sizzling early fractions.

The extra ground may help explain why accomplished milers, such as Gulch and Cherokee Run, have fared well in the Sprint at Churchill Downs. Still, '98 Sprint winner Reraise, a pure catch-me-if-you-can speedball, was simply much the best that day and had no problem with the added 38 yards. But the runner-up was Grand Slam, a 32.20-to-1 shot that fit the miler profile and completed a $402.60 exacta.