RAGOZIN FIGURES FOR TRIPLE CROWN PREPS
AVERAGE RAGOZIN FIGURES
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Grade 1 stakes
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-2 to 0
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Grade 2 stakes
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1 to 4
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Grade 3 stakes
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3 to 6
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Grade 1 stakes (turf)
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1 to 2
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|
Grade 2 stakes (turf)
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3 to 4
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Grade 3 stakes (turf)
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5 to 6
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$50,000 stakes at Calder Race Course
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8 to 10
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Grade 1 stakes (2yo)
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4 to 6
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Triple Crown race
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0 to 3
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Grade 1 Triple Crown prep
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2 to 4
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Grade 2 Triple Crown prep
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4 to 6
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Grade 3 Triple Crown prep
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6 to 8
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2yo maiden special (Saratoga Race Course)
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8 to 12
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2yo maiden special (Monmouth Park)
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11 to 16
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NW1 allowance (Belmont Park)
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8 to 9
|
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NW2 allowance (Belmont Park)
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6 to 8
|
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NW3 allowance (Belmont Park)
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5 to 7
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NW1 allowance (Hawthorne Race Course/spring)
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10 to 12
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NW1 allowance (Hawthorne Race Course/fall)
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11 to 13
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$50,000 claimer (Santa Anita Park)
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7 to 10
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$25,000 claimer (Santa Anita Park)
|
10 to 12
|
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$25,000 claimer (Hawthorne Race Course)
|
12 to 14
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Ragozin figures explained
Len Ragozin, the "father" of speed ratings, pioneered the production of precise and accurate figures for all horses running at major and most minor tracks in the United States and Canada. His system measures how fast each horse has run, taking into account weight carried, wind corrections, ground loss, and the resiliency of the track surface as measured by a daily variant. Len Ragozin and his father were the first to identify that those are the crucial factors in rating a horse's performance and to apply a serious scientific approach to determine their measurement and relationship to each other.
Accurate gate-to-wire timing and live ground loss data from observers are combined with an office staff that draws on five decades of experience in making track variants to produce the best, most accurate speed ratings in Thoroughbred racing.
Ragozin's figures are based on a system in which a lower number represents a stronger effort. A figure of 0 is equivalent to a top-class, Grade 1-quality effort, although in recent years a small number of champion horses, like Ghostzapper, have run as fast as minus 3s. The best figures are usually run in races like the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), with the winner normally earning between a -2 and 0. Slower winning numbers can be as high as in the 30s for inexpensive maiden claimers.
As an example of the practical use of the numbers, a male horse that raced until he was five and never earned a Ragozin figure lower than 12 was essentially no faster than an average $10,000 claimer competing in California. Conversely, a horse that ran a 2 in the spring of his three-year-old campaign ran comparatively fast enough to win an average Kentucky Derby (G1).
The figure for a top effort also can vary due to a horse's sex, age, and the time of year. Fillies generally run approximately 3 points slower than males in the
same category, while three-year-olds will typically run faster in the fall than in the spring.
The numbers for similar levels of dirt and turf races are usually equal, except in graded stakes, where dirt races have historically come in 1 or 2 points lower.
Below is a table of average Ragozin figures to give readers an idea of what any one number means for any one runner. These figures are for 2007. Since horses' performances have improved over the last ten years, comparable figures would be about one point higher five years ago and about two points higher ten years ago.
Note: Average winning figures for females are generally three points higher at each level.