Supply of buyers at Keeneland's 13-day September sale surprisingly matches supply of horses

It's simply unbelievable," said W. B. Rogers Beasley, Keeneland's director of sales. "I was out at the barns this morning at 7:00-7:30 a.m., and they were showing horses all over the place. There were a lot of people back there looking. Usually at this point they're just looking at them out back in the walking ring."

Keeneland September highlights

• World-record yearling sale total receipts of $291,827,100
• World-record $4.4-million yearling filly
• World-record 3,313 yearlings sold in single sale
• Record Keeneland September $6.8-million yearling
• Record Keeneland September average of $88,085
• Keeneland September record 28 seven-figure yearlings sold

Beasley's remark came on Wednesday, September 20, the tenth day of the 13-day 2000 Keeneland September yearling sale. Although the $1-million fireworks of the previous week seemed like a fever dream by that point, plenty of buyers were still plying the Keeneland grounds, winnowing through the seemingly inexhaustible supply of horses.

Since the sale had broken its previous record for total receipts at a yearling sale (set last year) after only five days, only the final dimensions of the sale's buffalo stampede of numbers remained to be calculated. At the end of the 13-day slog on September 23, those records included:

• Keeneland September record $6.8-million for yearling colt by Storm Cat;
• World-record $4.4-million yearling filly by Storm Cat;
• Keeneland September record 28 seven-figure yearlings;
• World-record yearling sale total receipts of $291,827,100; and
• Record Keeneland September average of $88,085.

Another, unofficial, record was for the number of buyers and sellers suffering from the blind staggers. "It's painful," said one major consignor of the last two days of the sale.

The two-week grind had an inevitable draining effect on buyers such as pinhooker Eddie Woods, who worked the barns and the back walking ring throughout the seemingly endless sale, looking for horses to sell or race for his Sabine Stable partnerships.

"They all have four legs, a mane, and a tail," said Woods as he watched through a veil of exhaustion on September 20, "or at least I think most of them do."

Even on the sale's second Wednesday, prices for quality individuals were still too high for most pinhookers.

"I can't go to the (juvenile) sales with a horse like that at that price," Woods said of a $180,000 Defrere colt. "The only place you can go is to the races." Woods was right. The colt, who attracted the highest bid of the session, was purchased by John C. Oxley, who owns Beautiful Pleasure and maintains a fairly large racing stable.

Keeneland's new covered walking ring was the principal meeting place for indefatigable horse traders during the second week of the sale. The imposing copper-roofed structure was crowded with buyers dutifully watching horses marching round and round, right up through the last two days of the sale on September 22 and 23.

Consignors were obviously interested in disposing of their remaining inventory. "There are only 25 outs (on September 21) and 24 so far for (September 22)," said Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland's assistant director of sales.

"Usually it's around 10%." Those sessions each included well over 300 horses. Buy-back rates also declined for the sale's final sessions, dropping below 20% and bringing the final buy-back percentage down to 23%.

One more million

After "super Tuesday" on September 12, the second of two days offering selected yearlings, the sale as usual settled into more mundane territory.

Seven-figure yearlings had highlighted the third and fourth sessions for the first time in 1999, but that phenomenon was not repeated this year. On September 14, the first Thursday of the sale, however, one prominent buyer warned, "Taylor Made has a Saint Ballado on Saturday (September 16) that's going to bring a lot of money."

Sure enough, that colt out of Stephanie's Road, by Strawberry Road (Aus), sold for $1.1-million to Eugene Melnyk, with Dan Kenny acting as agent. The first-ever seven-figure yearling in the sixth session pushed the sale total to a record 28, highest total for a yearling sale since 1986.

"Earlier in the year we'd had a lot of interest in him at $250,000-to-$300,000," said Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Sales Agency. "So we knew going in he was going to bring at least that much. It's just a matter of which buyers decide they have to have him.

"With Flame Thrower winning the Del Mar Futurity (G1) right before, the momentum for Saint Ballado just built and built."

That son of Halo, who stands at Taylor Made, sired the three highest-priced horses of the 11 open sessions.

Taylor had no quibble with Keeneland's failure to include the colt in the sale's selected sessions. "I'm a firm believer in having your horse placed where they're in the top echelon of the session. I don't have a problem with putting them where they stand out."

The colt is the first foal of stakes-placed Stephanie's Road, who was the only black-type performer in the first two dams on a catalog page that was not especially strong.

Although the high-profile bidding duels mostly included either Irish-based Demi O'Byrne or John Ferguson, who is based in England but represents Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum of Dubai, the sale was essentially American. Ferguson said no final decisions have been made on the ultimate destinations of the 45 yearlings he purchased for a September record $31,520,000. Nor have assignments been made for the 12 yearlings purchased by O'Byrne. But both Ferguson and O'Byrne represent clients who are increasing the American representation of their expansive stables.

Every other prominent buyer except Shadwell Estate Co.'s world-record a total of $4.4-million bid for a yearling filly and Moyglare Stud's two fillies for $4.15-million represented essentially North American interests.

Ferguson's total was the second highest for an individual buyer at a single yearling sale in history, behind only the $41.5-million spent by Sheikh Mohammed in the name of Darley Stud Management at the 1984 Keeneland July sale.

Storm Cat rules

With the highest-priced colt and filly in the sale, Storm Cat inevitably led all sires with 16 yearlings averaging $1,401,750. As he has all season, Pulpit led first-year sires by average with 18 horses sold for a $378,166 average. Lane's End's $53.8-million for 180 horses sold set a new record for a yearling sale consignment.

As shown by the accompanying session-by-session breakdown, the 2000 Keeneland sale was incredibly strong at the beginning, less so in the middle, and then incredibly strong toward the end when compared to the same sessions in 1999. The spectacular 53.1% increase in average for the second session was actually exceeded by the 59.8% upward leap in average for the 11th of 13 sessions.

The accompanying decile chart makes it clear, however, that-as has been the case at virtually every Thoroughbred auction over the last three years-the strength of the market was concentrated at the top. Fueled by "super Tuesday," the top 10% of the market rose 27.9%. The strength of the late sessions of the sale, though, is illustrated by the 12.2% jump at the bottom of the market. The middle was not a happy place to be.

In keeping with the top-heavy market, returns by stud fee were best at the top of the market. Buyers were clearly willing to reward breeders who invested in six-figure stud fees in 1998, a lesson surely not lost on Kentucky stallion managers.

Weanling-to-yearling pinhookers continued their long-painful slide, with the 419 pinhooked yearlings sold falling $6.5-million short of bringing enough money to balance the $40.3-million resellers invested in the 567 pinhooked yearlings offered.

There has never been a yearling sale like the 2000 Keeneland September sale. The burning question in the minds of breeders and consignors must be, "Will there ever be another?"

With stud fees for top commercial stallions rocketing upward and at least two six-figure stud fees for soon-to-be-retired racehorses Fusaichi Pegasus and Lemon Drop Kid already announced for 2001, the chasm between profit and loss for breeders is once again widening dangerously. California threatens to slip into the sea.

Bill Clinton's famous 1992 election campaign mantra, "It's the economy, stupid," has never been more relevant to the Thoroughbred industry.

Times are good.

Enjoy it while it lasts.

What else can we do?

Complete results of the sale begin on page 57.