NEWS
Ragozin Insider: Uncle Mo in prime position for Kentucky Derby
Posted: Friday, March 18, 2011 9:36 AM
UNCLE MO
Bob Coglianese photo
by Bob Ehalt
So far, so good.
The eagerly awaited 2011 debut of champion two-year-old male Uncle Mo on March 12 at Gulfstream Park did nothing to diminish the unbeaten colt’s reputation as a heavy favorite to conquer the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1).
In capturing the ungraded Timely Writer Stakes, he not only pushed his perfect record to four victories from as many starts but also gained some much-needed conditioning for the Triple Crown grind to come.
He also earned a Ragozin speed figure that could pay dividends on the first Saturday in May.
The unbeaten son of Indian Charlie received a pace-adjusted Ragozin figure of 4 for his easy, 3 3/4-length victory in the Timely Writer. Although closer to his worst figure than his best, the 4 translates into a nearly ideal three-year-old launching pad for a colt that enjoyed phenomenal success at two.
According to Len Friedman, a partner with Ragozin Thoroughbred Data, Uncle Mo’s figure was adjusted “a couple of points” because of slow early fractions that prevented him from registering the kind of lightning-fast final time that was the norm for him a year ago.
After reeling off dawdling opening fractions of 25.53 and 49.58 seconds against four overmatched rivals, the Eclipse Award winner would have needed a jet pack to complete the one-turn mile in blazing fast time.
“We reviewed the figure and felt it had to be adjusted because of the slow pace. We lowered it by a couple of points and, once we did that, everyone’s figure fell into line correctly,” Friedman said. “We’re comfortable with the figure we gave Uncle Mo.”
A year ago, Uncle Mo set a new standard of excellence for juvenile runners with an unprecedented Ragozin line of 1 1/4 – 4 1/2 – 2 1/2 in his three starts. After a campaign like that, Uncle Mo already owned a career top good enough to win all but five runnings of the Kentucky Derby since 1974, so there was no need for a miniscule number in his initial start of the new year.
Friedman said prior to the Timely Writer that a 4 would be an ideal starting point since it would leave plenty of time and room for advancement before Derby Day rolls around.
It looks like Uncle Mo listened to him.
“The 4 was what you expected from him if he’s OK,” Friedman said. “If he was much slower than that, you would be concerned. And if he was much faster, like a negative number, you would wonder how long he could keep running that fast.
“His performance in the Timely Writer did nothing to change the way you should look at him. Some people said he should have won by more, but all I know is that everyone who has raced against him has only seen his rear-end.”
Stage two in the process comes when Uncle Mo travels to owner Mike Repole’s hometown of Queens, New York, to run in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) on April 9 at Aqueduct.
Uncle Mo will need to take a measured step forward there to support the notion that he can post the 1 or a negative number he probably will need to win the Run for the Roses. On the other hand, a reaction to the 4 would be a major blow to his chances on Derby Day.
“The Timely Writer was nothing more than a strong workout for Uncle Mo,” Friedman said. “He was slow early and picked it up at the end. You’ll know much more about his chances in the Derby after the Wood. You want him to move forward, to say, a 3/4, in New York and then there would be a strong possibility that he could put up a negative figure and win the Derby.
“There’s also a line of thinking that Uncle Mo could run a 3 in the Wood and that would get him back to his top (1 1/4) in the Derby. A pattern like that, with a smaller forward move in the Wood, also would help him run better in the other two legs of the Triple Crown.
“There are a lot of possibilities out there because we still don’t know how good he can be.”
A trip to New York, where, as the song says, success there can lead to success anywhere, just might fill in most of those blanks.
Bob Ehalt is a Connecticut-based Thoroughbred Times correspondent
READER COMMENTS
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Posted by: Leonard, Inglewood, CA on March 20, 2011 at 08:37 PM
The screws are getting tighter and the competition is tougher for Mo, I wonder when is he going to start racing against some good 3yr. olds instead of having him beat up on claiming horse's. I doubt Mo can get a distance of ground, the minute he start's racing against the like's of Soldat, Premier Pegasus, The Factor, Stay Thirsty,To Honor and Serve and Jaycito then everyone will realize that Mo is at best a Miler..... JMO
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Posted by: papillon, ft. lauderdale, FL on March 19, 2011 at 06:05 PM
I have to agree with those here questioning Mo and Repole (Pletcher). Mo set the pace himself--adjusting his figure for a pace that was entirely of his own making, seems a little questionable--and leaves a bad taste in one's mouth. As long as horses lack fitness, we will never have another triple crown winner, we will also continue to have fragile horses prone to injuries and breakdowns. The most talented athlete alive won't never amount to much if he just sits on his butt all day watching TV...talent and class are nothing without fitness...especially if one's breeding is questionable for the classic distance (not too mention a mile and half).
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Posted by: nickie, scarborough, ME on March 19, 2011 at 08:16 AM
I guess we can assume you are safely entrenched in the Rapoli camp...methinks all the strategy should give pause for concern.If he is indeed the next Secretariat[hmmm lets see where have I heard that before] why the need for so much analysis...run the horse and move on
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Posted by: Linda, St.Petersburg, FL on March 19, 2011 at 04:24 AM
Uncle Mo is the next Triple Crown winner!! Big Brown almost did it and Mo is better than he was case closed. Mr.Repole will be in the winner circle all year with Mo get used to it.
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Posted by: Derek, Oslow, MD on March 19, 2011 at 01:01 AM
that gulfstream win was against the weakest field ever. he is a miler at best.
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