NEWS
Ragozin Insider: Champagne Stakes
Posted: Friday, October 08, 2010 4:43 PM
by Bob Ehalt
The normal growth chart for a highly promising two-year-old features a series of measured steps forward until a certain afternoon in May, when all of that promise and optimism is fulfilled.
Clearly, Uncle Mo is not your typical two-year-old.
After just one career start, he already is fast enough that with just mild improvement he will be an odds-on favorite to win a certain Grade I stakes at Churchill Downs. And we’re not about the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
We’re talking about the kind of stuff that will lead to an Uncle Mo movie several years down the road.
Then again, a lot can change this afternoon when the exceptionally fast Uncle Mo makes his second career start in the $300,000 Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park.
Unless you’re interested in collecting dimes off a dollar investment, the Champagne offers little excitement as a betting race. Instead, the focus will be on how Uncle Mo reacts to his phenomenal debut in an August 28 maiden special weight race at Saratoga Race Course.
The Todd Pletcher-trained Indian Charlie colt registered an off-the-chart Ragozin speed figure of 2 ½ in recording a 14 ¼-length victory. To put that figure in perspective, of the last 20 Kentucky Derby (G1) winners, only six have registered a speed figure better than 2 ½ in the Run for the Roses.
With so little room for improvement and a stretch out from six furlongs to a mile, it is a pretty sound assumption that Uncle Mo will slip a bit off such a monstrous debut, even with six weeks rest. The question is how much.
Will he prove to be mortal and regress substantially?
Meanwhile, if he goes backward only a few points, that could be a sign that we are looking at a very special horse.
If he manages to pair the 2 ½ or, gulp, go forward, the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown cannot come around soon enough for the connections of a horse who either is going to burn out way too early or join Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed in a rather exclusive club.
Weighing all of those possibilities, Uncle Mo seems more likely to regress than advance today, which normally might present a decent opportunity to wager against him—but not here.
The only horse with a reasonable chance of stopping Uncle Mo is his stablemate, Stay Thirsty. Together, the two are linked in a heavily favored 1-to-4 betting entry and, if anything, that price seems generous.
Stay Thirsty has a forward-moving line of 7 ¼ - 9 ½ - 12 ¼ and could continue to advance again by a point or two with five weeks rest. If Uncle Mo bounces, that could open the door for an upset, although the reward will be the same measly price at the betting windows.
Of the other five starters, not one of them has run faster than a 10, making it highly unlikely someone will magically step up and beat both Pletcher horses—unless they engage in a ridiculous battle on the front end.
That possibility aside, all eyes figure to be focused on the teletimer rather than the toteboard in the Champagne.
For the Ragozin chart of the race, click here.
For more information on the Ragozin Sheets, click here.
