NEWS
Ragozin Insider: Preakness Stakes
Posted: Friday, May 14, 2010 7:59 PM
SUPER SAVER
PhotosByZ.com/Thoroughbred Times
by Bob Ehalt
The Triple Crown chase started two weeks ago with a puzzle in the shape of a contentious 20-horse Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) field that ran in the bog that passed for a main track at Churchill Downs.
Logic said the second stop on the trail, the $1-million Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, would be a significantly easier test of a handicapper’s skills.
With that in mind, welcome to the utterly illogical 2010 Triple Crown season. Instead of getting easier, the steps are getting higher and harder to climb.
Talk to Ragozin Thoroughbred Data partner Len Friedman about Saturday’s 1 3/16-mile middle leg of the Triple Crown and uncertainty seems to be the morning-line favorite.
“There are 12 horses in the race,” Friedman said, “and the only one I can toss out is Jackson Bend. It’s a very tough, competitive race.
“You have the Derby horses, who have decent [speed figure] lines coming back on short rest to face others with slower lines but better rest. No one jumps up at you. I really can't get excited about it as betting race.”
While high odds normally drive the search for value in a wide-open field, the favorites cannot be overlooked in putting together exotic combinations. In this instance, they are capable of winning and relegating the longshots to the bottom half of the exotics. They simply do not offer value in such an evenly matched field.
The dilemma starts with the Kentucky Derby winner and 5-to-2 morning-line favorite, Super Saver. The Todd Pletcher-trained Maria’s Mon colt paired 4 ¼’s in the Derby and Friedman estimates that with two weeks rest he has a 10% chance of improving, a 20% chance of running another 4, and a 70% chance of regressing.
Those are anything but encouraging words about a favorite, yet the other Derby starters in the field—Lookin At Lucky, Jackson Bend, Paddy O’Prado, and Dublin—also are returning on two weeks rest and only one of the new faces has ever run better than a 5. What that means is that Super Saver has some wiggle room to run slower and still figure in the exotics—or even win the race for that matter.
Lookin At Lucky, the 3-to-1 second choice, has a decent line of 6¼ - 8¾ - 4 that would make him an attractive play … in the Belmont Stakes (G1) with five weeks rest. Off two weeks rest, while his numbers put him squarely in the mix, he does not figure to move forward as powerfully as he might have with a longer layoff.
Dublin, at 10-to-1, has posed the most baffling riddle for speed figure gurus. He keeps posting strong figures, bringing a line of 5½ - 3¼ - 4½ into the Preakness, yet his number power is weakened by only two weeks rest and post 12 on the far outside. He is also winless in six starts since winning the Hopeful Stakes (G1) last September.
Ultimately, in a balanced field like this one, the search for value winds up with the longer priced horses in the field. In this instance, Friedman says it will come down to either Aikenite or Yawanna Twist, based on their odds at post time.
Aikenite’s five-wide rally in The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial Stakes (G3) earned him a 3¾. That figure represented only a one-point new top for Pletcher’s other horse in the field, which boosts the stock of the 20-to-1 shot even more.
A drawback is that last year, when Aikenite registered a 4¾ in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), he returned on four weeks rest in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and soared to a 9 ½.
Yawanna Twist showed quality and improvement in his first three starts, advancing from a 9 to a 5 ½ to a 5 in the Gotham Stakes (G3). He took a step backwards with a 6 3/4 in a runner-up finish in the Illinois Derby (G3), but with six weeks off could return to the 5 or even post a new top.
At 30-to-1 that seems a fair gamble, and makes him, and Aikenite as well, interesting plays in the exotics—if you can earn the handicapper’s blue ribbon and pick the right ones to use them with.
|
P |
Horse |
Jockey |
ML odds |
Bob Ehalt’s comment |
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1. |
Aikenite |
J. Castellano |
20-to-1 |
Could be the value off a career top of 3¾ last time. Could also bounce |
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2. |
Schoolyard Dreams |
E. Coa |
15-to-1 |
Line of 10¼ - 7 - 7½ is not encouraging, even at the odds. |
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3. |
Pleasant Prince |
J. Leparoux |
20-to-1 |
This will be his fourth race in eight weeks and he owns just one figure better than an 8¾. Pass |
|
4. |
Northern Giant |
T. Thompson |
30-to-1 |
Bland line of 10½ - 7 - 7 is similar to Schoolyard Dreams’, but at least he’s 30-to-1. A possibility for the superfecta |
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5. |
Yawanna Twist |
E. Prado |
30-to-1 |
Has a line of 6¾ - 5 – 5¼ and six weeks rest; could move forward at a big price. Might be the value play |
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6. |
Jackson Bend |
M. Smith |
12-to-1 |
Is going backward (8¾ - 8¼ - 6¼) and has short rest. That’s two strikes against him |
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7. |
Lookin At Lucky |
M. Garcia |
3-to-1 |
Has a good pattern (6¼ - 8¾ - 4) but short rest is a concern, especially at the odds |
|
8. |
Super Saver |
C. Borel |
5-to-2 |
Derby winner has paired 4¼’s but figures to regress with 2 weeks rest and offers no value |
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9. |
Caracortado |
P. Atkinson |
10-to-1 |
Californian looms at least a light use in the exotics off a 9¾ - 7¼ - 5¾ and six weeks rest |
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10. |
Paddy O’Prado |
K. Desormeaux |
9-to-2 |
Improved slightly to a 5¾ in the Derby. Unlikely to run much faster than that on 2 weeks rest |
|
11. |
First Dude |
R. Dominguez |
20-to-1 |
Interesting longshot has a line of 8 - 9¼ - 6½ and could circle back to a new top with five weeks rest |
|
12. |
Dublin |
G. Gomez |
10-to-1 |
Has number power with a 5½ - 3¼ - 4½ but is winless since September. Post 12 does not help |
For more information on Ragozin speed figures, go to www.thesheets.com.
READER COMMENTS
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Posted by: Wade, B'ham, AL on May 15, 2010 at 09:26 PM
Boy, I can not wait to go out and buy this publication, this guy is great. Hope he does not post to many pics on the web or he will be out of business
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Posted by: Mark, Anderson, IN on May 14, 2010 at 08:19 PM
This article adds nothing to my handicapping. Looks like a free ad for the sheets to me.
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