NEWS
Ragozin Insider: Florida Derby
Posted: Saturday, March 20, 2010 1:18 PM
by Bob Ehalt
Stop me if you have heard this story before.
It features trainer Richard Dutrow Jr., who comes to the Florida Derby (G1) with a promising three-year-old owned in part by IEAH Stables and draws the outside post.
You should, of course, know what happens from there.
Dutrow and Big Brown go on to become a national sensation with victories not only in the Florida Derby but also the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) as well.
The same scenario could unfold today at Gulfstream Park as Dutrow sends out Radiohead (GB), a Johannesburg colt owned by a partnership that includes IEAH Stables, from post 11 in the 59th edition of the Florida Derby.
While history has a habit of repeating itself, Radiohead will face a difficult challenge in emulating Big Brown’s path to Louisville.
While he shares the fastest Ragozin speed figure in the race, the Florida Derby brings together a wide-open mix that includes four other horses who are coming off starts within two points of Radiohead.
The colt registered a smashing three-year-old debut in which he posted a Ragozin speed figure of 4 ¾ in a victory in a Gulfstream allowance race. Following a 9 ¼ in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Radiohead showed his fondness for dirt in that performance and gets the slight nod as the probable winner.
Yet the outside post and returning off only three weeks rest are big concerns for a horse that will vie for favoritism as the 3-to-1 second choice on the morning line. Value? Hardly.
The 5-to-2 favorite, Rule, also offers questionable value.
The Roman Ruler colt won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) in his previous start, earning a 6 ½. Coming in off a line of 6 ½-6 ¾-5 ¾ and five weeks rest, he has a solid chance of establishing a new career top. Yet there are several others as fast as or faster than him in the field of 11, weakening his appeal at low odds.
Then there is Lentenor, a full-brother to ill-fated 2006 Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby winner Barbaro. The Dynaformer colt will make his debut on a natural dirt surface and has a forward-moving line of 8 ½-9 ¼-14 ¼ on turf.
If Lentenor takes to dirt like his brother did, he will be a strong factor in the race. The trouble is that his bloodlines figure to drop his post-time price far below his morning line price of 6-to-1. Goodbye value.
Miner’s Return, at 6-to-1, showed immense potential as he won for the first time on February 27. Running one race after Radiohead on the card, he matched Dutrow’s horse with a 4 ¾. Yet coming off a six-point new top with only three weeks rest does not equate to value at those odds.
With that type of parade of questionable favorites, the usual course is to find a longshot. Yet even that is wrought with unappealing choices and high risk in this race, making it much more of a Triple Crown barometer than a way to invest your hard-earned money.
If you are determined to latch on to someone, however, there is First Dude, who is 8-to-1 with a line of 6 ½-9-13 ½ and enters off four weeks rest. Not bad, but not great, either.
The Gulfstream card on February 27 also produced another Florida Derby starter in Game On Dude, who notched a 5 ¾ in that day’s second race. He is a point slower than Radiohead and King’s Ransom, but it was only a 2 ¼-point new top and at 12-to-1 he could be a light use in the exotics.
Best Actor breaks from post ten and has not run since setting a 4 ¼-point new top of 7 on January 31. Pulsion, with a 9 in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), could circle back to his career top of 6 ½ off four weeks rest. Both, however, are 20-to-1 on the morning line and it is hard to picture either finishing better than third.
Add in a couple of others with 8’s in their previous starts and from a handicapping point of view, as familiar as the Florida Derby might seem, it hardly promises to be a race to remember.
|
P |
Horse |
Jockey |
M-L Odds |
Bob Ehalt’s comment |
|
1. |
Soaring Empire |
E. Castro |
20-to-1 |
Not much to like off a trio of 11s |
|
2. |
Lentenor |
A. Garcia |
6-to-1 |
Barbaro’s brother has a top of 8 ½--on turf |
|
3. |
Pulsion |
C. Nakatani |
20-to-1 |
A 9 last time; has a top of 6 ½ on synthetics |
|
4. |
Pleasant Prince |
J. Leparoux |
20-to-1 |
On the slow side with an 8 ¾ -10-8 ¾ |
|
5. |
Game On Dude |
J. Rose |
12-to-1 |
Is promising with a 5 ¾ and an 8, but enters off only 3 weeks rest |
|
6. |
First Dude |
R. Dominguez |
8-to-1 |
The other Dude has a 6 ½ but four weeks rest |
|
7. |
Rule |
J. Velasquez |
3-to-1 |
M-L favorite offers no value with a trio’s of 6’s |
|
8. |
Ice Box |
J. Lezcano |
15-to-1 |
Has paired 8’s and could improve a bit |
|
9. |
Miner’s Reserve |
K. Desmormeaux |
6-to-1 |
Has only 3 weeks rest after breaking his maiden with a fast 4 ¾ |
|
10. |
Best Actor |
J. Castellano |
20-to-1 |
Is not overmatched with a 7 and seven weeks rest |
|
11. |
Radiohead (GB) |
E. Prado |
3-to-1 |
Most likely winner with a 4 ¾ but 3 weeks rest and post 11 diminsh the value |
For more information on Ragozin speed figures, go to www.thesheets.com
