NEWS
Ragozin Data suggests June meeting for Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta
Posted: Friday, March 19, 2010 9:33 AM
ZENYATTA
Benoit & Associates photo
by Bob Ehalt
The Apple Blossom Invitational Stakes (G1) was supposed to be the setting for the great showdown of the new decade.
Then, as reigning Horse of the Year of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta took their eagerly awaited first steps of 2010 in a pair of March 13 races, it quickly fell apart.
Rachel Alexandra’s stunning loss in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes last weekend prompted her connections to skip the proposed $5-million tussle on April 9 and raised concern that Thoroughbred racing’s leading ladies may never grace the same stage.
After reviewing the performances of Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds and Zenyatta in the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (G1) at Santa Anita Park, Len Friedman, a partner with Ragozin Thoroughbred Data, expressed a belief that a race involving the two distaff champions still could happen. Just don’t waste any time looking for it until the Triple Crown season ends and summer rolls around—at the earliest.
“Rachel was clearly not ready to run,” Friedman said. “Yet there’s no reason she can’t return to where she was last year. She just rounded into shape too slowly for this race. I think if they meet it will be in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), but if someone wants to offer $5-million before then Rachel could be ready for a top effort in June after she gets in one more race.”
Ragozin figures paint a clear picture that the Rachel Alexandra who lost by three-quarters of a length in the New Orleans Ladies was not the same breath-taking runner who dominated 2009. The Medaglia d’Oro filly received a Ragozin figure of 6½ in her four-year-old debut--her slowest figure since November 2008, when she posted a 7¼ while finishing second in the Pocahontas Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. In 2009, Rachel Alexandra won all eight of her starts and posted three figures below a 1—an unprecedented achievement for a three-year-old filly.
“I believe they only ran [in the New Orleans Ladies] because they had a ridiculous time frame to make the race on April 9,” Friedman said. “I haven’t seen a reason why she can’t, with time, get back to those 0’s.”
While Friedman expects Rachel Alexandra to move forward in her next start, he warns that a repeat of the 6½ would be very troubling.
“If she runs another 6½ or something similar in her next race, then she’ll be retired,” Friedman said. “Another performance like that would not be a very good sign.”
Meanwhile, Friedman rated Zenyatta’s 1¼-length score in the Santa Margarita as the “perfect comeback race.” Zenyatta earned a 3 for her dazzling jaunt from last to first in the Santa Margarita, coming within a mere quarter-point of the 2¾ she posted in her 2009 debut.
With a line of 2¾-1½-4¾-1½ in her previous four races, the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner appears to be as sharp as ever, despite turning six.
“She is such an impressive horse,” Friedman said. “She came from last at the top of the stretch and still won. It doesn’t matter how fast they go in the stretch, she just runs past them.”
The handicapper in Friedman came out when he wondered about what might have happened if Zenyatta’s trainer, John Shirreffs, had not sent another of his horses, Zardana, to Fair Grounds to defeat Rachel Alexandra.
“Take Zardana out of the New Orleans Ladies and Rachel Alexandra wins by 12 lengths, everyone rejoices and she runs in the Apple Blossom,” Friedman said. “Then I get betting value on Zenyatta who would have been 1-to-5 in my mind to beat her.”
Whether Friedman or anyone ever gets the chance to do just that, remains to be seen.
