NEWS
Ragozin Insider: Sham Stakes
Posted: Saturday, February 27, 2010 12:52 PM
by Bob Ehalt
As they would say in Hollywood, “The Sham. Take Two!”
After last week’s cancellation due to Mother Nature, the $150,000 Sham Stakes (G3) returns Saturday with virtually the same cast of characters as last Saturday.
Gone are two longshots, Straightomidnight and the overmatched Viva Macho.
Of the two newcomers, Marcello is the one worth mentioning. He had a career-best Ragozin speed figure of 7 at two, but only an 11 in his last start, an overnight turf stakes on February 13. At best, he should be a light-use at 15-to-1 odds in your exotic plays.
The plays, in terms of value, remain Outlaw Man, El Mirage King, Kettle River and Setusko, in that order. Outlaw Man dropped from 10-to-1 to 6-to-1 in the morning line, and if his price dips beyond that on the toteboard, El Mirage King, who is still 20-to-1, would have even more appeal.
Nextdoorneighbor, the 3-to-1 morning-line favorite, moved up only slightly from post 10 to nine and still holds no appeal at a low price.
|
P |
Horse |
Jockey |
M-L Odds |
Len Friedman’s comment |
|
1. |
Marcello |
J. Valdivia Jr. |
15-to-1 |
A light-use in the exotics with a 7 at two and 11 in his last start |
|
2. |
The Program |
M. Garcia |
5-to-1 |
An 8 two starts ago, but only an 11 last time |
|
3. |
Outlaw Man |
G. Gomez |
6-to-1 |
The value in the race with a line of 9-14-9 on turf |
|
4. |
El Mirage King |
T. Baze |
20-to-1 |
Live longshot has a 7 on turf and 13 on synthetics; a repeat of the 7 makes him dangerous |
|
5. |
Boulder Creek |
V. Espinoza |
12-to-1 |
Maiden winner lacks number power |
|
6. |
Kettle River |
B. Blanc |
6-to-1 |
Has done nothing but move forward, with a 9 last time. Interesting at the odds |
|
7. |
Setusko |
R. Bejarano |
7-to-2 |
Had a 6, then bounced on turf to a 10. Could improve slightly but offers little value |
|
8. |
Wolf Tail |
C. Sutherland |
20-to-1 |
Too slow with a line of 11-13-11 |
|
9. |
Nextdoorneighbor |
M. Smith |
3-to-1 |
M-L favorite is slipping backward and is a bet-against due to the odds and the wide post |
|
10. |
Alphie's Best |
A. Solis |
6-to-1 |
Has paired 12s but is on the slow side. |
For more information on Ragozin speed figures, go to www.thesheets.com.
