NEWS
Ragozin Insider:
Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Posted: Friday, February 12, 2010 6:31 PM
AMERICAN LION
Benoit & Associates photo
by Bob Ehalt
For the connections of five classic hopefuls, it is better late than never.
A week after torrential rains at Santa Anita Park forced a cancellation of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) and the rest of the February 5 card, the $150,000 race will be run today, minus two of the original entrants.
Although Macias and Domonation did not return to give the Lewis another fling, the race still contains the horses that stood out a week earlier.
A traditional prep for the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis looms a lackluster betting affair but could provide some insight as to the distance capabilities of two fairly quick and promising sprinters.
Tiz Chrome and American Lion clearly are the fastest horses in the pint-sized field, although neither of them has raced beyond seven furlongs.
Of the two, Tiz Chrome owns both the best effort and most erratic pattern. The Bob Baffert-trained Tiznow colt won his November 1 debut at Churchill Downs by 3¼ lengths but registered a mediocre Ragozin speed figure of 14. Shipped west for his second start, he morphed into a blazing speedster on a synthetic surface, taking the 6½-furlong Stuka Stakes at Santa Anita by four lengths and earning a vastly improved 3¼ Sheets number.
Now, with two months of rest, the tricky part of the equation is deciding whether Tiz Chrome will react to the 11-point jump or was the huge step forward simply a sign that he had found a new home on a synthetic surface and might match the 3¼ or regress only slightly from the Stuka. Considering he is the 6-to-5 morning-line favorite, that is a lot of risk in exchange for little reward.
American Lion, another Tiznow colt, has a much more traditional pattern. He was second in his debut at Arlington Park, posting a 12¼, then broke his maiden at Keeneland with a 6½ and paired the 6½ a month later when he won the seven-furlong Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) by a half-length on November 21.
With three months off, he figures to advance and could jump up to 4, leaving Tiz Chrome only a small margin for error. That possibility makes him slightly more attractive than the favorite, although at 9-to-5 on the morning line and no experience at two turns he hardly is a value play.
Those distance question marks could make the others interesting plays. In this case, however, the gap between them and the favorites is so wide that they would need a major swing to close it. Nor does it help that the odds in a five-horse field will not be generous.
Of the other three, Dave in Dixie owns a slight edge with a 10 in the two-turn Norfolk Stakes (G1) on October 4, his previous start, and a career top of an 8¾ at six furlongs. Yet at 7-to-2 on the morning-line, he offers no value since he only is slightly better than the other two in the field.
Unbeaten Caracortado (4-to-1) is coming off an 11 in a 1 1/16-mile state-bred stakes at Santa Anita, and rank outsider Tango Tango (20-to-1) has been running between 11-12 in sprints at Golden Gate Fields.
Put it all together and, while the weather should be better this time around for the Robert B. Lewis, there’s not a lot of sunshine in the forecast for anyone betting the race.
|
P |
Horse |
Jockey |
ML Odds |
Bob Ehalt’s comment |
|
1. |
Dave in Dixie |
J. Rosario |
7-to-2 |
If the favorites can’t handle the distance, he has the best two-turn figure with a 10 |
|
2. |
Tiz Chrome |
G. Gomez |
6-to-5 |
Fastest here off a 3¼ in his last, but how does he react? He’s risky at the odds |
|
3. |
American Lion |
J. Leparoux |
9-to-5 |
Has paired 6½s and could move forward on the stretch out, but offers little value |
|
4. |
Caracortado |
P. Atkinson |
4-to-1 |
Undefeated but is coming off a pair of 11’s; no value at the ML odds |
|
5. |
Tango Tango |
R. Bejarano |
20-to-1 |
Golden Gate shipper has the best odds but slowest figures with a career top of 11 |
For more information on Ragozin speed figures, go to www.thesheets.com
