NEWS
Ragozin Insider: Helping eliminate guesswork along the Derby trail
Posted: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 9:43 AM
by Bob Ehalt
Each year, the names change but the road remains the same.
In the months ahead, a new group of precocious three-year-olds will endure a grinding series of familiar prep races that will steadily whittle their numbers down.
From New York to California, attention will be focused on stepping-stone stakes that will raise wild-eyed hopes for some and crush the dreams of others until about 20 or so are left to take those fateful steps into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1).
And then, after the most exciting two minutes in American sports, only one will be left standing with a chance to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.
Predicting who will fill that role as racing’s next spring superstar is never easy, though one tool that can help eliminate some of the guesswork from the process comes courtesy of speed figures from Ragozin Thoroughbred Data.
Ragozin speed figures are a highly valuable resource for handicappers because of the way they can be used to interpret a horse’s form cycle. Aside from providing an expert estimation of how fast a horse ran in a particular race, a series of Ragozin figures often paints a vivid picture of the direction a horse is headed.
Is he fast enough to win a race? Is he advancing or regressing? Is he expected to bounce after returning to the races too soon off a demanding effort?
Checking a horse’s most recent Ragozin speed figures, a collection of figures known as its pattern, is one of the best way to answer those questions, and over the course of the next few months we will use that measuring stick to analyze the key prep races and Triple Crown contenders in THOROUGHBRED TIMES TODAY’s Ragozin Insider: Triple Crown feature column.
What makes Ragozin figures so reliable is that they incorporate not just final time, but ground loss, weight carried, and wind speed as well. Mix all that together and you get a highly sophisticated assessment of how fast a horse ran.
Yet a single, last-race number is only a small piece of the puzzle. In order to use the Ragozin “Sheets” properly, handicappers have to embrace a philosophy built on the premise that demanding efforts are draining and that a horse needs a suitable amount of time to rest and recover from that race. By returning to the races too soon, even off a lopsided win, the odds of a horse bouncing off that performance rise like the mid-day temperature in a desert.
For a more practical explanation of what can be learned on the road to the classics with Ragozin Insider, keep in mind that lower numbers are better. Right now, in early February, the winners of the key prep races will usually earn a speed figure in the neighborhood of a 6. Three months from now, in the Kentucky Derby, the winner will probably be credited with a figure in the range of a 0 to a 2.
The manner in which a three-year-old moves closer to that par figure for the Derby will be quite telling about its chances in the run for the roses. After all, the idea is to peak on the first Saturday in May, not the second weekend in April.
As proof, since 2002 six horses have earned a figure of 1 or better in a Derby prep race. In theory, a lightning-quick effort like that indicates a horse is fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby. Yet for the most part, those horses simply peaked too soon. Of the six, only one, Smarty Jones in 2004, won the Derby, while four (Sinister Minister and Sweetnorthernsaint in ‘06, and Bellamy Road and Bandini in ‘05) were unplaced and another (I Want Revenge in ‘09) never made it to the starting gate.
Conversely, improving in gradual but meaningful steps, sometimes even taking a small step backward along the way, is usually the best way to advance from run-of-the-mill possibility to legitimate Triple Crown contender. Barbaro, for instance, progressed in his final three preps from an 8 to a 7 ½ to a 4 ¼ then capitalized on five weeks of rest to win the Derby with a career-best ¼.
Years like with 2009, when 50.60-to-1 Derby winner Mine That Bird flew in the face of conventional wisdom, are always possible.
Yet hopefully, over the course of the next few months, by monitoring the Ragozin speed figures of the contenders and pretenders, we’ll uncover the always coveted value plays on Derby day and perhaps point out a prep race winner or two—or at least a bad favorite—along the way.
Bob Ehalt has been a THOROUGHBRED TIMES correspondent for more than 15 years, most recently specializing in stories on Ragozin speed figures and technology.
Currently employed at the New Haven Register, he has been an award-winning sports writer/editor in Connecticut for nearly 30 years and has covered Thoroughbred racing since 1985. In 2009, he was the recipient of the inaugural Breeders’ Cup writing award for outstanding social media communication for his blog at www.ntra.com. He has received five Top 5 awards in the national Associated Press Sports Editor writing contest, the premier competition for sports journalists, and serves as the president of the Connecticut Sports Writers’ Alliance. He lives in Shelton, Conn., with his wife, Carylanne, and sons, Matt, Tim, and Jeffrey.
