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Ragozin Insider:
Whirlaway Stakes

Posted: Saturday, February 06, 2010 12:54 PM

by Bob Ehalt

Aqueduct’s inner track has never been mistaken for a proving ground where Triple Crown heroes are born.

There have been a few that have made the jump from chilly winter days in Jamaica, New York, to the bright sunshine of the winner’s circle in May at Churchill Downs or Pimlico Race Course, like 1993 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Prairie Bayou and 2004 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness champ Smarty Jones.

For the most part, however, winter three-year-old stakes at the `Big A’ are reserved for forgettable victors like Haynesfield or Achilles of Troy, who barely got to enjoy their proverbial 15 minutes in the spotlight.

In the $100,000 Whirlaway Stakes today, weather permitting, the inner track will showcase a three-year-old who surely has displayed the speed to match Smarty Jones yet carries a few question marks as well.

Eightyfiveinafifty enters the 1 1/16-mile Whirlaway off an electrifying 17 ¼-length triumph in a six-furlong maiden race over the inner track on January 9. The victory was as fast as it was easy as Eightyfiveinafifty checked in with a dazzling Ragozin speed figure of 2 ¾.

To put that number in perspective, it bested the figure posted by Mine That Bird in last year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands and those of three of the last five winners of the opening leg of the Triple Crown.

Before reserving a space in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May for Eightyfiveinafifty, however, the son of Forest Camp will have to prove he can handle two turns with the same aplomb as a sprint distance.

While the oddsmaker says Eightyfiveinafifty is a 2-to-5 choice to navigate the increase in distance, there are a few caution flags. For one, his breeding is suspect.

According to Len Friedman, a partner with Ragozin Thoroughbred Data, few if any offspring of Forest Camp have earned a speed figure better than 10 around two turns on the dirt.

Compound that with the likelihood that Eightyfiveinafifty will bounce off his blistering maiden victory [he ran a 10 in his August 1 debut], and it is hard to swallow a $2.80 win price.

Yet betting against him is risky. For all of the negatives that come with Eightyfiveinafifty, he certainly has the potential to bounce significantly, perhaps even to a 7, and still win the race against a weak array of opponents.

If there’s a horse that could offer value in the small six-horse field, it would be Papa’s Nice Cat, who is listed at an intriguing 15-to-1 on the morning line. He debuted in October with a 26 ¼ in the New York Breeders’ Futurity at Finger Lakes, then moved forward powerfully with a 9 ¾ and a 7 in his next two starts.

In his previous try, he finished second in an allowance race while making his two-turn debut. He slipped to only a 9 ¾ that day and, with five weeks rest, might circle back to the 7. Whether that’s good enough to win the Whirlaway, though, depends on whether Eightfiveinafifty’s legs grow wobbly in the final furlong or he runs like a future champion.

Beyond that, the other morning-line choices come with flaws.

Turf Melody (8-to-1) showed promise with a 9 ¼ in a Remington Park stakes but regressed to a 12 in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds and has just two weeks rest. Three Day Rush (3-to-1) owns an 8 ½ sprinting but registered an 11 ¾ in his lone two-turn start.

They surely have the mediocre look of inner track hopefuls on a day when we will find out if, as the song says, one New York horse has the quality to make it anywhere.