NEWS
Ragozin Insider: Personal Ensign
Posted: Saturday, August 28, 2010 10:25 PM
RACHEL ALEXANDRA
Bill Denver/Equi-Photo
by Bob Ehalt
It is generally known that size matters.
In Sunday's $300,000 Personal Ensign Stakes (G1), distance will have to matter for the 1 1/4-mile stakes to be a competitive affair.
Reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra is so much faster than her four challengers in the Personal Ensign that the rigors of the tenth and final furlong shape up as her main obstacle.
The truth about this year’s older female division is that Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta are significantly faster in terms of their Ragozin speed figures than anyone else, in spite of what Life At Ten’s six-race winning streak might say.
Even though Rachel Alexandra is a bit slower this year compared with 2009, she still owns Ragozin figures of 2½ -1¾ -2½ -6½ in her four ‘10 races. Coming off that 2½ in a win in the Lady’s Secret Stakes five weeks ago at Monmouth Park, she should return to the ritzy neighborhood of the 1¾ or better, unless the distance poses an insurmountable problem for her.
Anything close to her last figure should be more than enough to propel her into the winner’s circle, but at odds of 2-to-5 there’s not much incentive to back her.
In contrast, Life At Ten has a vastly slower line of 8-6-6 in her last three starts, with the 8 coming in the Delaware Handicap (G2) six weeks ago at Sunday's 1 1/4-mile distance. She might return to the 6 today, but most likely will need the perfect storm of new career top and a well-below average effort by Rachel Alexandra to beat the favorite. At morning line odds of 5-to-2, there simply is not much value in hoping for that to happen.
If there is a way to play the race, it probably would be to eschew the chalk exacta and use one of the outsiders with Rachel Alexandra and/or Life At Ten. It’s not a far-fetched idea since both Rachel Alexandra and Life At Ten possess sharp early speed and might engage in a lively duel on the front end. Beyond that, Life At Ten’s figures are not that much better than Persistently or Miss Singhsix (Ire).
Persistently, one of the East’s top two-year-old fillies in 2008, has a forward moving line of 8-10-27 (the 27 was in her lone career race on grass) and while five weeks rest would be preferable, with four weeks off and 20-to-1 odds, she’s worth a look.
Miss Singhsix has more rest with six weeks off and was second by three lengths to Life At Ten in the Delaware Handicap, receiving a 10. She had a 6 and 9 before that and if she gets back to the 6 she might sneak into the exacta.
She’s listed at 10-to-1, but what should be monitored most in this play is the value in the exacta payouts. Unless distance matters a lot more than one would figure, the Personal Ensign is Rachel Alexandra’s race to lose.
Bob Ehalt is a Connecticut-based Thoroughbred Times correspondent
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P |
Horse |
Jockey |
ML Odds |
Bob Ehalt’s comment |
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1. |
Miss Singhsix (Ire) |
J. Valdivia Jr. |
10-to-1 |
Might go forward a bit off a 10-6-9. |
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2. |
Rachel Alexandra |
C. Borel |
2-to-5 |
The most likely winner with a 2 ½-1 ¾-2 ½, but will be odds on. |
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3. |
Persistently |
A. Garcia |
20-to-1 |
Is forward moving with an 8-10 and could sneak into the exacta with some help from a fast pace. |
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4. |
Life At Ten |
J. Velazquez |
5-to-2 |
Is much slower than the favorite with an 8-6-6. |
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5. |
Classofsixtythree |
J. Castellano |
20-to-1 |
Is a bit slower than the others with a 10-11-14. |
For more information on Ragozin speed figures, go to www.thesheets.com.
READER COMMENTS
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Posted by: Amazed, Palm Beach, FL on August 29, 2010 at 03:44 PM
As, my favorite blogger, Pixie would say: It took both Unrivalled Belle's and Zardana's personal best to beat Rachel Alexandra...and I may add that they were never the same after. Yet, Rachel Alexandra kept getting better (ex: by dusting Zardana in the rematch).
Rachel Alexandra will win the Personal Ensign, hopefully race and win in the Beldame, and then go to the Breeder's Cup!
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Posted by: Jack, Baltimore, MD on August 29, 2010 at 01:55 PM
Life At Ten took down Unrivaled Belle in the G1 Ogden Phipps Handicap. Correct me if I'm wrong. But I believe that Unrivaled Belle took down Rachel Alexandra at Churchill Downs this season. Her other loss being to Zardana. Life At Ten is really rolling, and has proven she can win at 10 furlongs. Rachel has yet to ever try 10 furlongs. I give Life At Ten a huge chance of beating Rachel Alexandra in the Personal Ensign. JMO.
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Posted by: John, somerset, KY on August 29, 2010 at 01:49 PM
I think the Rachel Alexandra of 2010 will struggle getting 1-1/4. Life At Ten is coming into the race off of six straight wins. He last one being a G2 win at 1-1/4. I won't be at all surprised if Life At Ten puts it on Rachel. But I almost hope Rachel wins. That way, Jackson will be foolish enough to put her in this year's Breeders Cup Classic. Then, they'll be no dodging Zenyatta like she did at Oaklawn on that day.
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Posted by: JR, Destin, FL on August 29, 2010 at 09:32 AM
Wow, a 5 horse field for a GI. Seems like those stakes cordinators could have drumed up at least a couple of more starters. They should have just wrote an RA walkover.
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