NEWS
Ragozin Insider: Travers Stakes
Posted: Friday, August 27, 2010 6:39 PM
FLY DOWN
Adam Coglianese/NYRA photo
by Bob Ehalt
When last seen in a 1¼-mile race, Super Saver was busy splashing through the mud to become the nation’s top three-year-old.
Much has changed, however, since the first Saturday in May, when the Maria’s Mon colt registered a 2½-length victory in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1). He then finished eighth in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and, most recently, finished fourth in the IZOD Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1).
The Kentucky Derby winner adds a big dose of star power to the $1-million Travers Stakes (G1) today as well as an inviting target to bet against in a wide-open field of 11 for the Saratoga Race Course summer meeting’s main event.
As much as Super Saver stands out as the only winner of a Triple Crown race in the field, several others who sat out the Run for the Roses own Ragozin speed figures which indicate the Mid-Summer Derby might be their time to shine.
With a bland Ragozin line of 7-10-4 in his three most recent starts, Super Saver could inch forward today. Yet from the outside post at a morning-line price of 6-to-1, he simply offers little to no value in a highly competitive race—unless it rains or jockey Calvin Borel works another miraculous ground-saving trip.
Meanwhile, it is a collection of horses who prepped for the Travers in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at the Spa that deserve the most consideration at the betting windows.
Heading that pack is Belmont Stakes (G1) runner-up Fly Down, who was fifth in the Jim Dandy but notched a career-best 5 in the race. Fly Down has a Ragozin line that reads 5-8-5 1/2 and, with four weeks rest, seems a probable candidate to move forward again.
Weights also boost his chances as each starter will carry 126 pounds. In the Jim Dandy he gave away six pounds to the victorious A Little Warm and three pounds to runner-up Miner’s Reserve, both of whom will face him again today.
With the probability of a forward move and morning-line odds of 8-to-1, the late-running Fly Down stands out as the key horse in exotic wagers.
A Little Warm posted a 3/4-point new top with a rounded off 4 in the Jim Dandy. Although he probably will pair that 4 rather than surpass it, a line of 4-6-6 gives him enough power to make the 7-to-2 favorite the main threat.
Two longshots also have the potential sneak into the exotics.
Miner’s Reserve came out of the Jim Dandy with a line of 5-7-5 and at odds of 12-to-1 cannot be ignored, especially from the rail.
Friend Or Foe was fourth in the Jim Dandy, registering a 5 in his first try around two turns. Although he slipped a bit in that initial try at a route, his line of 5-4-6 becomes even more attractive when matched with 15-to-1 odds.
Of the rest, Trappe Shot posted a career-best Ragozin figure of 1 three starts back in a Belmont Park seven-furlong sprint. Since then, he notched a 7 in the Long Branch Stakes, followed by a 6 in the Haskell, both at Monmouth Park. With four weeks rest, he might be poised for another step forward, but at 4-to-1 there is little value in backing him at the betting windows.
First Dude and Ice Box both have gone the wrong way since their second-place finishes in Triple Crown races and carry little appeal.
Ice Box recorded a 5 when second to Super Saver in the Derby, then slipped to a 13 in the Belmont and a 10 in the Haskell. At 20-to-1, handicappers might warm to him, but his 10-to-1 morning-line price simply leaves one cold.
First Dude notched a 6 in his runner-up finish behind division leader Lookin At Lucky in the Preakness, but paired 9’s in his next two starts and, at the same 8-to-1 odds as Fly Down, he is easy to ignore in the Mid-Summer Derby.
|
P |
Horse |
Jockey |
ML odds |
Bob Ehalt’s comment |
|
1. |
Miner’s Reserve |
D. Cohen |
12-to-1 |
A must-use in the exotics with a line of 5-7-5 and the rail |
|
2. |
Trappe Shot |
A. Garcia |
4-to-1 |
Best is a 1 sprinting; can move forward off a 6 but offers little value |
|
3. |
Admiral Alex |
K. Desormeaux |
12-to-1 |
A 7 in his lone start gives him a chance to crack the exotics with some improvement |
|
4. |
First Dude |
R. Dominguez |
8-to-1 |
Line of 9-9-6 is not that appealing |
|
5 |
A Little Warm |
J. Velazquez |
7-to-2 |
Might react to a 4 in his last, but line of 4-6-6 makes him a main contender |
|
6. |
Ice Box |
J. Leparoux |
10-to-1 |
Just a 10 and 13 since posting a 5 in the Derby |
|
7. |
Afleet Express |
J. Castellano |
6-to-1 |
Has some number power with a 4-8-3 but might react at the distance |
|
8. |
Fly Down |
J. Lezcano |
8-to-1 |
The value play at the odds off a 5-8-5 1/2 |
|
9. |
Friend Or Foe |
R. Maragh |
15-to-1 |
Longshot should be used in the exotics with a line of 5-4-6 |
|
10. |
Afleet Again |
C. Velasquez |
30-to-1 |
Just a 9-7-7 and post ten is a turn-off |
|
11. |
Super Saver |
C. Borel |
6-to-1 |
Derby winner has a 7-10-4 but from post 11 at odds of 6-to-1 offers no value |
For more information on Ragozin speed figures, go to www.thesheets.com.
READER COMMENTS
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Posted by: Tracy, Petoskey, MI on August 28, 2010 at 03:48 PM
Such a shame this won't be on television this year.
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Posted by: pete, westmoreland, NY on August 27, 2010 at 09:23 PM
i always todd pletcher horses 2nd start back off a layoff,i will use super saver and
fly down in the exacta.
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