NEWS
Ragozin Insider: Wood Memorial Stakes
Posted: Saturday, April 03, 2010 12:46 PM
by Bob Ehalt
One of the more unusual aspects of horse racing is that sometimes being too good can come back to haunt someone.
While the University of Connecticut women’s basketball team can win by 40 points on a regular basis without a speck of trouble, a horse that romps one week can finish up the track the next week against similar competition.
It happens all the time and it might pop up today in no less a setting than the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1).
To say Eskendereya was good in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) would be a huge understatement. He was extremely good; maybe even too good.
Looking at Eskendereya’s Ragozin speed figures, the three-year-old son of Giant’s Causeway posted a career-best 2 ¾ in taking the Fountain of Youth (G2) by 8 ½ lengths. He had a 6 in his previous start and an 11 in his final start at two.
That represents a considerable amount of development in a small span of races and explains why Len Friedman, a partner with Ragozin Thoroughbred Data, expects Eskendereya to bounce and says he will happily take a stand against the prohibitive 4-to-5 favorite in a small field of six.
“Eskendereya has six weeks off since running that 2 ¾, which is fine,” Friedman said. “But he’s had eight points of development from his two-year-old campaign and that’s a quite bit of growth. I don’t know if he’ll get much better than that (2 ¾) and that makes him vulnerable. At 4-to-5, he’s definitely one to bet against.”
Friedman says he will try to beat the favorite with Jackson Bend and Awesome Act, who are the second and third choices, respectively, on the morning line.
Final odds may make one a better wagering proposition than the other. Based on the morning line, however, he sees, Jackson Bend as the value play in the race. A son of Hear No Evil trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito, Jackson Bend has done nothing but improve during his eight-race career and, with six weeks rest, there’s a solid chance that trend will continue today at Aqueduct.
Although Jackson Bend finished a distant second to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, he brings a line of 6-7-7 into the Wood. In Friedman’s estimation, all it will take is a slight forward move by Jackson Bend and a return to his 6 by Eskendereya to erase that 8 ½-length gap and give Jackson Bend the edge in their rematch.
“Jackson Bend’s figures made a small forward move in his last race, which is what you like to see,” Friedman said. “It tells you he can continue to get better and perhaps run a new career top today.”
Friedman also believes Awesome Act, at 9-to-2, offers considerable more wagering value than the favorite.
Awesome Act showed a new dimension when he debuted on dirt in the Gotham (G3) and won by 1 ¼ lengths while receiving a career-best 3 ¼. The Gotham also served as Awesome Act’s three-year-old debut and gave him a line of 3 ¼-9-10. Although slightly slower than Eskendereya, Awesome Act has improved by only six points off his two-year-old races and should handle the new top better than the odds-on favorite.
“He has four weeks off since the Gotham, but most likely he’ll react to the 3 ¼,” Friedman said. “Yet in comparing him to Eskendereya, he did more at two and I don’t think he’ll go backward as much as Eskendereya. I would definitely play him over Eskendereya, too.”
As much as that surely sounds like sound wagering strategy, one can only hope it is a good idea. There could be a problem if it is “too good” an idea.
Bob Ehalt is a Connecticut-based Thoroughbred Times correspondent
|
P |
Horse |
Jockey |
ML Odds |
Len Friedman’s comment |
|
1. |
Most Happy Fella |
A. Napravnik |
15-to-1 |
Looks sad after three straight 10’s |
|
2. |
Awesome Act |
J. Leparoux |
9-to-2 |
Like the favorite, made a big jump last time but should handle it better |
|
3. |
Eskendereya |
J. Velazquez |
4-to-5 |
Was not that fast at two and should react to a 2 ¾; a bet-against at the odds |
|
4. |
Schoolyard Dreams |
R. Dominguez |
5-to-1 |
Not much value with short rest after pairing 7’s |
|
5. |
Jackson Bend |
C. Borel |
4-to-1 |
Has never gone backward and is the value play in the race |
|
6. |
Carnivore |
J. Shepherd |
20-to-1 |
Likely to bounce with a line of 8-16-13 |
For more information on Ragozin speed figures, go to www.thesheets.com.
