NEWS
Rest and rail make Big Drama
best value in Preakness field
Posted: Thursday, May 14, 2009 6:04 PM
BIG DRAMA
Coady Photography
by Bob Ehalt
It does not take a doctorate in the art of calculating speed figures to determine that Rachel Alexandra is a gifted and fast filly.
Yet in Saturday’s Blackberry Preakness Stakes (G1), the question that begs an answer is whether she’s too fast or she ran too fast. There’s a huge difference in the two.
For all of the excitement Rachel Alexandra has injected into the Preakness, she also added an ample supply of intrigue, especially for followers of Ragozin speed figures.
There’s little doubt that Rachel Alexandra is the fastest of the 13 three-year-olds entered in the Preakness. She put that question to rest with an awesome 20¼-length win in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) (video). In the process, aside from prompting a multimillion dollar sale to new owners Jess Jackson and Harold McCormick, the Medaglia d’Oro filly registered an exceptional Ragozin speed figure of ¼, easily eclipsing the 3 that Mine That Bird posted for his 50.60-to-1 upset the following day in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) (video).
With just 15 days of rest, it’s unlikely that Rachel Alexandra will match or improve off that ¼ and where she might land off a bounce on Saturday is the key to handicapping the race.
If she returns to her career top of 3 in the Martha Washington Stakes in February at Oaklawn Park (video), she could win. But if she slips back to the 4¾ she earned in the Fantasy Stakes (G2) in April at Oaklawn (video) or the 6 for her Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) win in March (video), she is certainly a vulnerable favorite at 8-to-5. Drawing post 13 and tacking on the prospect of ground loss makes her more of a tossout than a wagering key.
Finding someone to beat her, though, is also fraught with problems in a race filled with horses who have been posting similar numbers.
Mine That Bird (6-to-1) won the Derby by nearly seven lengths with a shocking last-to-first run. Yet he jumped from a 9¾ to a 3 and with a previous career top of 8 seems a more likely candidate than Rachel Alexander to bounce like a Bernie Madoff check. Of course, if it rains you might want to re-evaluate that thought.
Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile (5-to-1) might be sitting on a big race – if he were running next in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Pioneerof the Nile circled back to his career top of 4 in the Derby, which is usually a positive sign. Yet two weeks rest might prevent him from moving forward, and at 5-1 he’s only borderline value.
Musket Man (8-to-1) and Papa Clem (12-to-1), who were third and fourth, respectively, in the Derby, are in the same boat. Musket Man paired 4½s and Papa Clem slipped from a 3¼ to a 5. Both would be candidates to move forward if they had more rest, but their odds are good enough to use them in exotic wagers.
Officially, Friesan Fire ran in the Derby. He didn’t do much running, though, as he grabbed a quarter at the start and lost by more than 42 lengths. He seemed on target to move up to at least a 3 in the Derby after 4¼ in the Louisiana Derby (G2) (video) and if you could forgive his 24 in the Derby, he offers decent, but not great value at 6-to-1.
The best value, though, might be found in a horse that is clearly fresher than anyone else in the field. Big Drama has raced only once in 2009 and that was eight weeks ago in the Swale Stakes (G2) (video). He won that day, but was disqualified and placed second for interference in the stretch. Nevertheless, he earned a new top of 3½ in the Swale and with a 5 in his last race at two, he only needs to improve only slightly off his last race to be a major factor in leg two of the Triple Crown.
Big Drama has never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles and figures to be pressed rather hard on the front end, yet at 10-to-1 odds and with the prospect of a ground-saving rail trip he’s surely attractive.
He’s certainly not as fast as the filly, but, like the other 11 males in the field, he can hope that Rachel Alexandra ran too fast.
Bob Ehalt is a Connecticut-based correspondent for THOROUGHBRED TIMES
|
Post |
Horse |
Jockey |
ML odds |
Ragozin outlook |
|
1. |
Big Drama |
J. Velazquez |
10-to-1 |
Should be the value in the race off a 3½ with plenty of rest and the rail. |
|
2. |
Mine That Bird |
M. Smith |
6-to-1 |
After jumping from a 9 ¾ to a 3 on a wet track, Derby winner will be praying for rain. |
|
3. |
Musket Man |
E. Coa |
8-to-1 |
Has paired 4½s. Can he post a new top on short rest? |
|
4. |
Luv Gov |
J. Theriot |
50-to-1 |
Hart to Luv off a 4-point move to an 8 in a maiden win. |
|
5. |
Friesan Fire |
G. Saez |
6-to-1 |
If you can ignore the 24 in the Derby, had a promising 4½ and 6 before that. |
|
6. |
Terrain |
J. Rose |
30-to-1 |
Northing better than a 9 in two 2009 starts. |
|
7. |
Papa Clem |
R. Bejarano |
6-to-1 |
Can be a spoiler if he gets back to his 3½ in the Arkansas Derby. |
|
8. |
General Quarters |
J. Leparoux |
20-to-1 |
A weak 9¾ in the Derby but a solid 4¾ before it. Which way does he go? |
|
9. |
Pioneerof the Nile |
G. Gomez |
5-to-1 |
Circled back to a top of 4, but short rest may be an issue. |
|
10. |
Flying Private |
A. Garcia |
50-to-1 |
Was awful in the Derby (a 23) but had a decent
5¾ two starts before that. |
|
11. |
Take the Points |
E. Prado |
30-to-1 |
Has to improve off three straight 6½s to be a factor. |
|
12. |
Tone It Down |
K. Desormeaux |
50-to-1 |
Much slower than the others with three straight 12s. |
|
13. |
Rachel Alexandra |
C. Borel |
8-to-5 |
She’s the fastest horse, but the question is how much does she bounce off a ¼ in the Kentucky Oaks? Post 13 and 8-to-5 odds are not inviting. |
For more information on Ragozin speed figures, go to www.thesheets.com.
THOROUGHBRED TIMES uses Ragozin speed figures exclusively in its publications, including the Stallion Directory and all THOROUGHBRED TIMES Buyer’s Guides.
