NEWS
Summer Bird could be value play for Belmont
Posted: Thursday, June 04, 2009 2:52 PM
SUMMER BIRD
Jeff Coady/Coady Photography
by Bob Ehalt
In the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), followers of the Ragozin Sheets who looked at Mine That Bird could not find many reasons to bet on him.
Five weeks later, little has changed.
As much as Mine That Bird has become a fan favorite with his 50.60-to-1 stunner in the Derby followed by a determined runner-up finish to Rachel Alexandra in the BlackBerry Preakness Stakes (G1), the prospect of taking a price on him in the vicinity of even-money in the $1-million Belmont Stakes (G1) on Saturday is about as appealing as hearing one more story about Jon and Kate, whoever they are.
While no male has finished ahead of Mine That Bird in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, the little gelding has not raced with the exceptional quickness we’ve seen on occasion in recent editions of the Triple Crown.
Mine That Bird posted identical career-high Ragozin Speed Figures of 3 in the Derby and Preakness, bringing him to a crossroads. Does he go forward or backward?
With just three weeks rest and facing a third classic race in five weeks, chances are he will take a step backward. That certainly is not confidence-building news about a horse that figures to sink below his 2-to-1 morning-line price.
Tossing him out completely will take some courage, yet one other factor explains why the Kentucky Derby hero seems better suited for the bottom of exotic tickets rather than the top.
He is not the fastest horse in the 1½-mile race. Charitable Man, the 3-to-1 second-choice, is coming off a 2½ in his 3¾-length victory in the Peter Pan Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park. Dunkirk, the 4-to-1 third-choice, notched a 2 in the Florida Derby Presented by BlackBerry (G1) and 2½ prior to that in an allowance race.
Getting a higher price than the favorite on horses with faster figures is always a prime opportunity for Sheets handicappers. Choosing between Charitable Man and Dunkirk, however, is difficult because both have only raced four times and they lack established form patterns.
Dunkirk probably would get the nod because of the likelihood that he will go off at a higher price, yet at 4-to-1 he is not exactly value. That commodity seems to have been left to a bird of a different feather.
At 12-to-1, Summer Bird looms the value play. He, too, has raced only four times. After a pair of 10¾ in his first two starts, he leaped forward to a 3¾ in the Arkansas Derby (G2). Not surprisingly, he bounced in the Derby, where he was sixth, but only went backward 2½ points to a 6½.
With five weeks to recover, he might be poised to match or improve on that top, and getting 12-to-1 odds seems like a good enough reason to take a gamble and use him as the key in exotic combinations.
Another longshot with some potential is Luv Gov, who is listed at 20-to-1. After being stuck in neutral in his first three races this year, racking up a trio of 12s, he finally broke through with an 8¼ in a maiden victory on Derby Day.
Ambitiously entered in the Preakness, he registered a 7½ while finishing eighth. Horses often regress off maiden wins, so when a longshot can move forward when he’s steered from a maiden race to a Triple Crown race, there is at least a small indication that the horse is moving in the right direction.
While he would need dramatic improvement to win the race, a small jump could land him a spot at the end of a highly rewarding triple or superfecta on a day that might be for the birds.
Bob Ehalt is a Connecticut-based Thoroughbred Times correspondent
|
Post |
Horse |
Jockey |
Morning-line odds |
Ragozin outlook |
|
1. |
Chocolate Candy |
G. Gomez |
10-to-1 |
Line is going backward with an 8¼, 6, 4¾ |
|
2. |
Dunkirk |
J. Velazquez |
4-to-1 |
If the 10¾ in the Kentucky Derby was a fluke, the 2 and 2½ before that were very legit |
|
3. |
Mr. Hot Stuff |
E. Prado |
15-to-1 |
Nothing better than a 7¼ in his last three is not inspiring |
|
4. |
Summer Bird |
K. Desormeaux |
12-to-1 |
Seems the value off a 6½ and 3¾ in his last two and five weeks rest |
|
5. |
Luv Gov |
M. Mena |
20-to-1 |
Inched forward to a 7½ in the Preakness. Interesting possibility at the price |
|
6. |
Charitable Man |
A. Garcia |
3-to-1 |
Ran a 2½ in the Peter Pan, but does he react to it? |
|
7. |
Mine That Bird |
C. Borel |
2-to-1 |
Is favored but, with a top of 3s, has not run as fast as Dunkirk and Charitable Man. Those facts do not mix well |
|
8. |
Flying Private |
J. Leparoux |
12-to-1 |
Seems likely to bounce off a move to a new top of 4¾ in the Preakness |
|
9. |
Miner’s Escape |
J. Lezcano |
15-to-1 |
Is moving forward, but only ran an 8¼ last time out |
|
10. |
Brave Victory |
R. Maragh |
15-to-1 |
A 6½ in his previous start, but still has not matched his two-year-old top of 5¼ |
For more information on Ragozin Speed Figures, go to http://www.thesheets.com
