NEWS
Odds-on favorite in 12-horse field complicates morning line
Posted: Friday, May 16, 2008 11:00 AM
by Ed DeRosa
Making Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) winner Big Brown the odds-on morning line favorite to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) was a no brainer; it was deciding how his deflated price will affect the wagering on the race’s other 11 entrants that complicated the morning line process.
There is some precedence. Two of the past four and three of the past eight Preaknesses have had an odds on favorite with only Smarty Jones at 7-to-10 in 2004 winning (Barbaro at 1-to-2 in ’06 and Fusaichi Pegasus at 3-to-10 in ’00 both lost).
Smarty Jones faced nine rivals with Lion Heart the second choice at 4.9-to-1 and two other horses below 7-to-1. Everyone else was at least 12.8-to-1. Barbaro faced eight rivals, and Brother Derek was the 3.2-to-1 second choice. No other horse was less than 8-to-1.
This year, it does not appear that there is a horse besides Big Brown with enough interest to generate the type of action that either Derby runner-up Lion Heart or Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Brother Derek did in the Preakness. There are no other Grade 1 winners in the race and only one other horse from the Derby. Still, with 11 adversaries, it will be tough for Big Brown to take enough action to be the 1-to-2 he is on the morning line. It is hard to imagine Gayego or Kentucky Bear being $20 horses in this race. For them to both be 8-to-1 and no other horse more than 30-to-1, Big Brown is likely to be 3-to-5.
Ed DeRosa is news editor of Thoroughbred Times
Post position, Horse, Odds
1. Macho Again, 25-to-1
2. Tres Borrachos, 30-to-1
3. Icabad Crane, 30-to-1
4. Yankee Bravo, 30-to-1
5. Behindatthebar, scratched
6. Racecar Rhapsody, 20-to-1
7. Big Brown, 3-to-5
8. Kentucky Bear, 8-to-1
9. Stevil, 20-to-1
10. Riley Tucker, 30-to-1
11. Giant Moon, 30-to-1
12. Gayego, 10-to-1
13. Hey Byrn, 20-to-1
