This year's Kentucky Derby (G1) field is likely to be one of the least experienced

Every campaign to the Kentucky Derby (G1) shares common events-horses falling off the Derby trail because of injury, late bloomers getting rapt attention from the racing media, and juvenile stars failing to train on successfully at three. They are as natural and predictable as the arrival of spring.

The road to the 126th Kentucky Derby on May 6 contains all of those elements, and a large intriguing band of three-year-olds is bound for Churchill Downs.

The early-season defections of graded stakes winners Forest Camp and Dixie Union as well as the early March injury to 1999 Champagne Stakes (G1) winner Greenwood Lake robbed this year's race of three juvenile stars. Anees, last year's juvenile male champion, is still in the hunt but has raced just once this year.

The young-and-talented set comprises two colts trained by Neil Drysdale, who won his only Triple Crown start with A.P. Indy in the 1992 Belmont Stakes (G1). Drysdale-trained War Chant and Fusaichi Pegasus, who had one start between them last year, won the San Rafael (G2) and San Felipe (G2) Stakes, respectively, to enter the Derby picture as this year's fast-developing stars to watch.

Both will battle history-Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby winner who did not race at two, and the last winner with just one juvenile start in his holster was Lucky Debonair in 1965. But inexperience has become a regular feature of recent Derbys. It was a major factor in last year's race. The Derby field averaged 7.26 career starts per horse, second lowest since the end of World War II at least, and the battle that occurred entering the first turn led some to call for a reduction-again-in the maximum field size from the current limit of 20.

This year's Derby will, in all likelihood, mirror last year's for inexperience. Of the 27 three-year-olds that received votes on Thoroughbred Times's March 29 Road to the

Kentucky Derby Web site poll (http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/tc2000/default.asp), 11 could enter the Derby with five or fewer career starts. That includes the aforementioned Drysdale runners, Frank Stronach's undefeated Gotham Stakes (G3) winner Red Bullet, and UAE Derby winner China Visit.

Assuming that each of the 27 horses race once before the Derby-except for Godolphin Racing's China Visit-the 27 horses will have a combined 192 starts on May 6, an average of 7.11 starts per horse.

The most experienced of the group would be multiple Grade 1 winner High Yield, who is scheduled to make his 12th lifetime start for trainer D. Wayne Lukas in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 15 at Keeneland Race Course. When Lukas won his fourth Derby last year, he did so with the most experienced member of that relatively green field-Charismatic entered the race with 14 starts.

Here is a look at how the three-year-old picture stacks up a little more than four weeks before the Derby.

Southern California

Recent editions of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) have attracted small but select fields, and this year's race on April 8 probably will continue that trend.

Expected to meet War Chant in the Santa Anita Derby is Anees, who has started the year somewhat slowly. The Unbridled colt, who unleashed a powerful last-to-first move to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), missed several weeks at the start of the year with a bruised foot and did not make his 2000 debut until the San Felipe on March 19, when he was third.

The field also is expected to include Santa Catalina Stakes (G2) winner The Deputy (Ire), Hollywood Futurity (G1) winner Captain Steve, star three-year-old filly Surfside, and Cocky, who finished third in the San Rafael in his stakes debut.

In Northern California, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is considering where to go next with Globalize, who shipped to Kentucky to win the Turfway Spiral Stakes (G2) on March 25. Also staying there for now is El Camino Real Derby (G3) winner Remember Sheikh, who was expected to be a late Triple Crown nominee and will probably run in the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields on April 15.

Kentucky

The $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes is shaping up as one of the leading prep races of the season and will feature a rematch of Hal's Hope and High Yield, the respective top two finishers in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 11. Also likely for the Blue Grass is Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Mighty.

Unheralded at the start of the year, Hal's Hope has been one of the most consistent members of this year's sophomore crop, winning the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and finishing second to High Yield in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1). The colt's 88-year-old owner-trainer-breeder, Harold Rose, and his wife of 40 years, Elsie, have added charm to the spring campaign.

High Yield has displayed all the traits of a typical Lukas Derby prospect. Hard-knocking, consistent, and durable, High Yield flourished in South Florida, winning the Fountain of Youth impressively and dueling with Hal's Hope the entire length of the stretch in the Florida Derby.

Mighty defeated More Than Ready-another probable Blue Grass participant-in the Louisiana Derby. Trained by Frank Brothers for Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider, Mighty has finished first or second in four graded stakes, making him one of the most experienced members of this year's class.

Globalize, a solid winner of the Spiral over Elite Mercedes, appears to be headed for the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2) at Keeneland on April 22.

Elsewhere

Red Bullet and Fusaichi Pegasus are expected to be the main contenders in Aqueduct's Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) although Drysdale has not ruled out the Blue Grass for his colt. Those two would be the standouts in the 11Ú8-mile Wood, along with Aptitude, a game second in the Gotham to Red Bullet.

The Arkansas Derby (G2), run the same day as the Blue Grass and the Wood, is expected to draw the Steve Asmussen-trained duo of Snuck In and Big Numbers, who finished first and second, respectively, in Oaklawn Park's Rebel Stakes (G3) on March 25. Also expected for the Arkansas Derby is Risen Star Stakes winner Exchange Rate.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum's Godolphin Racing operation said in late March that UAE Derby victor China Visit will go in the Derby rather than the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) the same day. China Visit, by Red Ransom, won the UAE Derby by 41Ú4 lengths over stablemate Bachir on March 25. Another possible Derby contender is Chief Seattle, purchased by Godolphin after running second in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He is expected to run in a trial race at Nad al Sheba sometime in April.

Godolphin's road to the Derby has one sizable boulder potentially blocking the way: China Visit has yet to race in a graded stakes and thus has no graded stakes earnings. If more than 20 are entered for the Derby, China Visit might be excluded by the rule that assigns starting slots to those with the highest graded earnings.