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Handicapping contests register record numbers, decade of growth

Posted: Wednesday, January 25, 2012 3:44 PM

2012 NATIONAL HANDICAPPING CHAMPIONSHIP

by Frank Angst

For many Thoroughbred handicappers, seeing black and white photos of thousands of fans crowding racetrack grandstands in the mid-20th century creates a longing for the good old days.

Reigning Daily Racing Form/National Thoroughbred Racing Association National Handicapping Championship (NHC) winner John Doyle, NHC Tour winner Paul Shurman, Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge winner Patrick McGoey, and many other horseplayers would beg to differ. These players enjoy tournament handicapping contests, which never have been better.

Tournament horseplayers believe they are on the cutting edge of skill-based gambling games, a spot similar to poker at the turn of the 21st century. That excitement will be on display on Friday and Saturday when the world’s best tournament horseplayers gather at Treasure Island in Las Vegas to compete in the NHC and for the Handicapper of the Year title. This year’s NHC will award a record $1-million to the winner and a record total purse of about $2-million to a record number of contestants, approximately 525.

Handicapping tournaments have bucked many of the problems facing pari-mutuel wagering and are surging in popularity, drawing core customers and gradually attracting new players to the sport. The tournaments’ popularity suggests there still is plenty of interest in picking winning horses.

“We just continue to see year-over-year growth in tournament play and participation,” said Keith Chamblin, NTRA senior vice president. “Other than advance-deposit wagering, tournaments are probably the only positive trend line—continually positive trend line—over the course of the last decade that I’m aware of that relates specifically to wagering.”

The record purses at this year’s NHC, a tournament for which players earn a seat by winning or placing in one of the many qualifying tournaments offered throughout the year, certainly has captured horseplayers’ attention.

“We’ve undergone some tremendous growth,” Chamblin said. “Like almost any event or effort, we’ve had a few growing pains, but by and large it’s been a terrific year. There’s no question that the announcement that we were going to increase the NHC purse substantially, and move toward a $1-million payday to the grand prize winner, stimulated interest and participation over the course of the calendar year. We also opened tournament play up to NTRA and non-NTRA member sites. That brought a lot of the brick-and-mortar facilities that had participated in earlier years back onto the calendar, and I think that was a popular move that resonated with a lot of players.”

The growing pains Chamblin referenced concern some scheduling problems and online tournament issues, but he is confident those problems will be ironed out in 2012. The NHC Tour, a schedule of brick-and-mortar tournaments as well as Internet tournaments where players can qualify for the NHC as well as compete for the Tour title, saw a record number of more than 4,600 players compete in 2011. Chamblin expects even more growth in online tournaments going forward.

Like the NHC Tour, the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge offers online qualifying events. Ken Kirchner, administrator of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge, believes Internet tournaments offer a great opportunity to attract new customers, especially former online poker players searching for an outlet since the U.S. closure of the most popular offshore sites.

“We’re looking for some crossover there,” Kirchner said. “Last year, we brought in [poker pro] Michael Mizrachi and Breeders’ Cup may do that again. No one thinks this shutdown will last forever, but there is a window of opportunity here. There are a lot of poker players without outlets who are looking for action. Contests are critical for new-player recruitment.”

With the Breeders’ Cup going to Santa Anita Park in 2012, Kirchner sees opportunities to attract poker players from poker hotbeds Las Vegas and Southern California.

Shooting for the moon

While today’s tournaments may not be Damon Runyon-esque or guys-in-hats cool, McGoey realized well before his swing-for-the-fences tournament-winning wager on Drosselmeyer in the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge that he was part of a special gambling event.

“It’s a great crowd at the event and you’re sitting on Millionaires’ Row at Churchill Downs,” said McGoey, a lawyer from New Orleans. “I get a big rush when the horses are getting in the gate. It’s a lot better than playing poker or betting football. I used to play tournament poker, but I’d get bored because you had to muck so many hands. With handicapping tournaments, you have a lot more action. It’s so much more fun than poker.”

McGoey and 2011 NHC winner Doyle both qualified for the major tournaments through online events. Doyle earned a spot through NHCqualify.com. While the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge requires a $10,000 investment—$2,500 fee and a commitment to wagering $7,500—McGoey’s only investment was $100. He finished first in a tournament at BCqualify.com to secure a spot and its $10,000 buy-in.

Knowing McGoey’s total investment helps one appreciate his winning wager. Going into the final race, he only needed to bet $900 and could have walked with the remaining $6,100, a tidy $6,000 profit, not to mention a seat on Millionaires’ Row for two days of world-class racing. Instead, he fired all of his remaining $7,000 on Drosselmeyer in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), a win wager that would return $110,600 and earn him the $160,000 first-place tournament prize.

“Everything at the [Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge] fell into place perfectly to be in a position to make the bet on Drosselmeyer, and watching his closing kick coming down the Churchill Downs stretch was tremendous,” McGoey said. “Knowing that I turned a $100 online qualifying spot into $270,000 is a fantastic feeling. I can’t wait for the 2012 event at Santa Anita.”

The victory qualified McGoey to this month’s NHC, where organizers are working to get the word out about the fun and potential big prizes at racing’s most prestigious tournament. Next year, the tournament will become a three-day event, with tentative plans calling for a paring of the field to allow more focus on top players for a potential television partner.

“Eleven years into this, with $1-million going to the winner, we think there are a number of things about the NHC that can appeal to a broadcast partner,” Chamblin said.

A television partner could present features on the varied people who compete in the NHC, which boasts a diverse collection of winners in its history. Chamblin and Kirchner believe that if a television partner finds a way to communicate the excitement and story lines of a top handicapping tournament, horse racing could enjoy an influx of new players similar to poker’s surge following broadcasts of events like the World Series of Poker.

Once players participate in their first handicapping tournament, many return time and again, whether it be a brick-and-mortar or online tournament. In a recent poll that drew responses from 1,200 NHC Tour players, nearly half said they play in five tournaments or more annually.

“You have 46% who play in five tournaments or more a year. That’s a pretty phenomenal number,” Chamblin said. “I pay a lot of attention to this but I was even struck by that number. That’s pretty robust play by this group of Tour members.”

Tracks and websites have taken notice. Tracks like Keeneland Race Course offer small weekly tournaments during live racing and frequently offer smaller tournaments on Fridays featuring other Kentucky tracks. Websites like DerbyWars.com have launched, offering daily tournaments at a wide price range.

New players typically see the best side of race wagering. Kirchner noted that top tournaments typically are contested in the best rooms tracks have to offer and websites have improved technology. Those features help foster a first-rate experience for players.

“What we’ve found at the National Handicapping Championship and many of the tournaments around the country is that they are a day- or a weekend-long celebration of the horseplayer,” Chamblin said. “It’s a great way for tracks to, in the eyes of many, give something back to the player.

“And the players, we’ve heard time and time again, we’ve heard about the friendships and camaraderie that form at the brick-and-mortar tournaments over the years. For many of the players, some of the more popular tournaments have become a circuit. You’ll see many of the same faces attending tournaments at Emerald Downs, Keeneland, Turfway [Park], [the New York Racing Association], you name it. You see the same familiar faces year after year. People really relish and enjoy traveling to the different tournaments and seeing counterparts who are passionate about horse racing and passionate about qualifying for the NHC.”

Chamblin said the poll of NHC Tour players showed a mix of experienced high rollers and newer players. Kirchner said the diverse crowd helps the atmosphere.

“Players enjoy the camaraderie, sitting around talking with other top players about their approach, and their picks,” Kirchner said. “It’s a chance to sit at a table and talk horse racing with people and handicap races.”

And win big money.

“The message is getting out to players,” Kirchner said. “We’re looking at someone who turned $100 into $270,000. ... I think we have a story to tell. The two major tournament title holders of 2011 both won after winning small buy-in tournaments online. Hopefully we can build our case with people that you should get involved in handicapping tournaments.”

Three-day NHC format could pave way for TV

The excitement of handicapping tournaments is capturing horseplayers’ interest, but many organizers believe their ability to attract and educate new players would soar with an effective television broadcast.

With this year’s Daily Racing Form/National Thoroughbred Racing Association National Handicapping Championship (NHC) boasting a made-for-TV payout of $1-million to the winner, the NTRA hopes a move to a three-day tournament in 2013 will spark interest from a television partner. The NTRA hopes to devise a final-day format that could make for interesting television without sacrificing the competition’s integrity.

“There’s no question that we’d like to find a way to make the championship a bit more television friendly,” said NTRA Senior Vice President Keith Chamblin. “To this point, and going forward, what will continue to be of utmost importance will be that we have a fair contest for the national championship among the participants. If TV comes, then TV will come. But we don’t want TV to drive the decisions as to how we would hold the championship.

“But at the same time, we’re also examining ways to tweak the championship to appeal even more to a potential television partner.”

Skill-gambling tournament events like the World Series of Poker (WSOP) have fared well on television, serving up instant drama as players mull decisions with big money on the line while fans “play at home” thanks to the ability to view players’ hole cards. Poker tournaments translate well to television, and each broadcast promotes and educates potential new players.

Handicapping tournaments generate the same kind of excitement, and, like poker, there are plenty of interesting stories to be told about the players in the field and their varied backgrounds. Unfortunately, previous efforts to broadcast the NHC have failed to find racing’s “hole cards.” That is to say previous broadcasts of the NHC failed to find elements that create television drama.

At this point, the NTRA is leaning toward paring the NHC field down after the first two days to a more manageable size, perhaps 100 or 80 of the 500-plus players. This would allow a broadcast partner to focus on players in the thick of the competition.

“Doing something like that makes it easier to tell the stories of the players that are moving closer to the national championship,” Chamblin said. “It definitely is an avenue to illustrate the passion and appeal of our game—and have that passion and appeal told through the eyes of the player. No question those stories would be interesting and varied.”

Poker saw a huge spike in interest after the television broadcast of the 2003 WSOP main event final table in which Chris Moneymaker defeated well-known professional player Sam Farha. Moneymaker qualified for the then-$10,000 buy-in WSOP main event after paying a small amount of money and winning an online tournament.

Televised poker has enjoyed success telling the stories of the players involved. Like poker tournaments, handicapping tournaments attract players with varying levels of experience and many different backgrounds. With a third day and smaller field to focus on, television could convey the stories of the top NHC handicappers.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt about it, our game attracts a wide variety of people,” Chamblin said. “We’ve had a woman win. We’ve had an African-American win. Young people, older people. The NHC has been very representative of the total fan base of our sport, kind of a microcosm of the game.”

Chamblin thinks the three-day format could provide healthy competition and interesting television.

“If we had remained at a two-day tournament and tried to pare the field down, a lot of people would have felt like one day is not a fair enough test,” Chamblin said. “But I think most people would agree that after two days, either the crème has risen to the top or someone has had two exceptionally lucky days of handicapping. There might be an avenue for moving the final 100 or 80 into a final pool of players, while continuing to host a tournament for all others that are part of the NHC as well.”

Like poker, major handicapping tournaments have benefited from Internet qualifiers. The online format has helped spark growth in tournament play and will continue to provide opportunities to attract new players. In 2011, the winners of both the NHC and Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge each qualified through online tournaments.

The NHC is working to tell its story online. While top players competed in Las Vegas at this year’s NHC, others had the opportunity to play the same mandatory races (races every tournament player must wager) in an online tournament. Chamblin said it provided new players a chance to see how they would have done in the NHC.

Fans were able to follow online the progress of players as standings were updated after each mandatory race.

Frank Angst is senior writer for THOROUGHBRED TIMES