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Ragozin Insider: A major upset for Ragozin Horse of the Year

Posted: Saturday, January 15, 2011 3:38 PM

BLIND LUCK

Benoit & Associates photo

by Bob Ehalt

The battle for Horse of the Year seems to be coming down to the finish line much like the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) did.

It’s Zenyatta and Blame, or Blame and Zenyatta, depending on your preference.

Yet if the criteria for a Horse of the Year award was based solely on speed, then there would be a much different path to racing’s ultimate prize—one that mirrors last year’s scenario.

In choosing the fastest horse of 2010, Len Friedman, a partner with Ragozin Thoroughbred Data, tossed out both Zenyatta and Blame and crowned the three-year-old filly Blind Luck as the “Sheets” Horse of the Year.

In Friedman’s eyes, Blind Luck had the best body of work in 2010, with a longer and faster string of races than Zenyatta and Blame.

“On her best day, Blind Luck could have beaten Zenyatta or Blame,” Friedman said. “She ran nine times and seven of her numbers were outstanding.”

Blind Luck’s best day came in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes (G2) when she posted her career-best Ragozin figure of a minus-1/4. Neither Blame nor Zenyatta could crack a 1 1/4. Blind Luck also had a 1 in the Delaware Oaks (G2), and her season was described by Friedman as “the second-best year ever by a three-year-old filly.”

The best season by a three-year-old filly was Rachel Alexandra’s 2009 campaign. As it turned out, Rachel Alexandra never regained her brilliance at four, but Friedman believes Blind Luck is better positioned to improve at four than last year’s Horse of the Year.

“Blind Luck improved more gradually at three than Rachel Alexandra and she was not pushed as hard by running on short rest like Rachel was. They squeezed the lemon dry in Rachel Alexandra’s case and it showed this year [when she won just two of five races]. Blind Luck had much better timing between her races and could continue to improve,” Friedman said.

Friedman did select Zenyatta, who had a season best 1¼ in the Vanity Handicap (G1), as the best older female, even though her figures slipped a bit from her 2009 slate. Nevertheless, with 19 wins from 20 career starts and a series of powerful figures over the last three years, Friedman rated Zenyatta as one of the two or three best females of all time.

Blame was not as fortunate, as Quality Road earned as the nod as the fastest older male with two minus-1s, a 3/4, and a 1 1/2. Blame, with a 1 1/2 in the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) and a 2 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) as one of two 2s this year, was second.

Besides Blind Luck, Friedman’s three Horse of the Year finalists included Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner Goldikova (Ire), who had a brilliant minus-1/2 in her lone U.S. start and was a lopsided choice as the top turf female, and the two-year-old sensation, Uncle Mo.

Uncle Mo was labeled by Friedman as the fastest two-year-old he’s ever seen, based on a 1 1/4 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and a 4 ½ and 2 ½ in his two other races.

“I can recall other numbers faster than the 1 1/4 by a two-year-old, but not three numbers like that. He’s in a class by himself. He’s a very special horse,” Friedman said.

Elsewhere, Friedman gave the two-year-old filly crown to Kathmanblu off a 6 3/4 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2) and an 8 in the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) on dirt. Awesome Feather, the favorite to be named the division’s Eclipse Award champion, posted only a 9 ¼ in winning the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

“It was a very strong year for two-year-old colts, and conversely it was a weak year for two-year-old fillies,” Friedman said.

The leading three-year-old colt was Lookin At Lucky, with a top of 1 ¼ in the Indiana Derby (G2), who narrowly edged Friend or Foe (three 3s) and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) runner-up Morning Line (a 2-4-3 in his last three races).

Among males, the standouts were Majesticperfection (2 0s and 2 2s), older sprinter; Paco Boy (Ire) (a 1 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile), older turf; Rule by Night (2 1s), three-year-old sprinter; Sidney’s Candy (a few 4s), three-year-old turf.

The top females also included: Dubai Majesty (a 1 in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint [G1]), older sprinter; Nicole H (2 3s), three-year-old sprinter; and Harmonious (a top of 4), three-year-old turf.

Bob Ehalt is a Connecticut-based correspondent for Thoroughbred Times