NEWS
Pondering the possibilities
Posted: Saturday, June 16, 2001
Point Given's stellar Belmont victory focuses attention on how hard it is to win the Triple Crown
Let the second-guessing begin.
In the wake of Point Given's victory in the Belmont Stakes (G1) on June 9, everyone now knows he is the standout of his crop and that he woulda, coulda, shoulda-as the late writer Dave Feldman would say-won the Triple Crown. Point Given was conceded the Triple Crown by many before the Kentucky Derby (G1), and now that he has won the last two legs in impressive fashion, the question is: What went wrong? His loss in the Derby will be analyzed for years.
Point Given's trainer, Bob Baffert, now has to decide which is worse: losing the last leg of the Triple Crown when on the cusp of a sweep or the first leg with the best horse?
Baffert has had experience losing the last leg twice, with Silver Charm and Real Quiet back-to-back in 1997-'98. Silver Charm was beaten three-quarters of a length by Touch Gold after having the lead through most of the stretch but tiring in the last 70 yards. Real Quiet was beaten a nose in the last jump by Victory Gallop after having a seemingly insurmountable four-length lead with an eighth-mile to run.
Point Given is a superior racehorse to Baffert's two previous classic winners. When Point Given finished fifth in the Derby, there were generally two theories: One, he was too close to a fast pace; second, he was not fit enough. Many think Baffert, due to his previous losses in the Belmont, was too conservative with Point Given before the Derby.
The thought here is that it was a combination of the two factors. In the Derby, Point Given was caught wide on both turns from his outside post and was close to the fastest early fractions in the history of the Derby. When you couple that with just two starts at three, he did not have his customary late kick. Had the early fractions been much slower or had he had another prep race, the sport may have had its 12th Triple Crown winner. But that is just woulda, coulda, shoulda.
No matter what the reason or reasons, the loss of Point Given in the Derby offers further evidence of how tough it is to win the Triple Crown. To win it, you have to be both good and lucky. A horse must be able to withstand the rigors of three tough races plus some hard prep races; must not have any bad racing luck in any one of the races; must have some other factors fall into place-like a good post position or a hole open up-in a race or two or three; must not have an opponent throw in a one-time career performance; and must come along in the right crop. For Point Given, it was not meant to be.
Some other thoughts on the Belmont:
- The stretch battle between A P Valentine and Monarchos would have been nice drama had not Point Given been in the race. With Point Given so far in front, A P Valentine and Monarchos may have thought they were battling for the win. In many years, they would have been. They reached the finish line in approximately 2:29. Since Secretariat won in record time of 2:24 in 1973, the average winning time of the Belmont has been 2:28.41. Since 1973, ten Belmonts have been run in 2:29 or slower.
- Some people think that because horses are not asked to go 1 1/2 miles on dirt in top company but once in their careers anything is possible in the Belmont. The converse is true. The demands of the race separate horses better than any other race in America.
- Point Given especially has an advantage in distance races because he can gallop along and fully use his long, fluid stride. The farther the distance, the better he is.
- Former Quarter Horse trainer D. Wayne Lukas won his first Belmont in his eighth try, with Tabasco Cat in 1994. He then won the race the next two years, with Thunder Gulch and Editor's Note, and again in 2000 with Commendable. Baffert, another former Quarter Horse trainer, won the 2,640-yard Belmont with his fifth starter. Beside his two second-place finishers, he had Cavonnier pull up with a bowed tendon in 1996, and the filly Silverbulletday finish seventh in 1999. Now that Baffert has the monkey off his back, he will very likely be a force in the Belmont for years to come.
- On the other hand, he will not have Point Given going for him again. And that is a once-in-a-lifetime horse.
Mark Simon is editor of Thoroughbred Times.
