Monarchos has a number of things going for him when he competes in Baltimore

When the horses crossed the finish line of the Kentucky Derby (G1), the first question on everyone's mind was: How could I be so stupid not to have the winner? The second question was: Can he win the Triple Crown?

Answer to the first question is easy. I'm stupid. I picked Point Given.

The answer to the latter question is a lot harder, for it involves a number of variables, not the least of which starts with the quality of the horse.

In Monarchos, the Derby produced a winner who possesses the qualities needed to win the Triple Crown. He has the ability to run a distance and has a turn of foot to get into the race at a critical juncture. But the odds are still long for a horse to complete the feat.

To get an idea of Monarchos's place in history-past and future-a starting point is to examine his Derby triumph.

Monarchos won the Derby in 1:59.97, the second-fastest time in history, and by 4 3/4 lengths, the 13th-largest winning margin in 127 runnings. He is in select company with those two feats.

The largest Derby winning margin is eight lengths, accomplished by four horses: Old Rosebud (1914), Johnstown (1939), Whirlaway (1941), and Assault (1946). The final two won the Triple Crown. Old Rosebud did not compete in the Preakness Stakes, and Johnstown was fifth in Baltimore.

Of the other eight horses who won by five lengths or more, two-Sir Barton (1919) and Burgoo King (1932)-won the Preakness, with Sir Barton going on to win the Triple Crown. Four of those horses-Chant (1894), Halma (1895), Bubbling Over (1926), and Spend a Buck (1985)-did not compete in the Preakness.

So, of the seven horses who won the Derby by winning margins greater than that of Monarchos and who competed in the Preakness, four came back to win the Pimlico Race Course classic. The three who lost were Johnstown, Hoop, Jr. (second), and Dust Commander (ninth). Those historical references bode well for Monarchos.

A large winning margin in the Derby, of course, is not the only measure that can be cited to predict success. Secretariat won the Derby by 2 1/2 lengths, Seattle Slew by 1 3/4 lengths, and Affirmed by 1 1/2 lengths.

As for winning time, Monarchos was just the second winner to break the two-minute barrier. Secretariat, who holds the Derby record at 1:59 2/5, won the Triple Crown.

The horse now with the third-fastest Derby time, Northern Dancer, 2:00, won the 1964 Preakness and finished third in the Belmont Stakes.

The fourth-fastest Derby (2:00 1/5) was won by Spend a Buck, who did not compete in the 1985 Preakness. Decidedly won the 1962 Derby in 2:00 2/5 and finished eighth in the Preakness. Longshot Proud Clarion won the 1967 Derby in 2:00 3/5 and finished third in the Preakness. Grindstone (2:01.06) broke down after winning the 1996 Derby and was retired. Fusaichi Pegasus, winner last year in 2:01.12, finished second in the Preakness. Lucky Debonair (2:01 1/5) was seventh in the 1965 Preakness, and Affirmed, who also won the Derby in 2:01 1/5, won the 1978 Preakness. Thunder Gulch (2:01.27) finished third in the 1995 Preakness. Co-tenth-fastest Derby winner, Whirlaway, in 2:01 2/5 (same as Thunder Gulch when using fifths of a second), won the Triple Crown.

So, of the previous ten-fastest winners of the Derby who competed in the Preakness, four won the Preakness: three eventual Triple Crown winners and Northern Dancer. That, too, bodes well for Monarchos.

Final time and winning margin are often a function of pace. The pace of the 2001 Derby was the fastest in history. The opening half-mile (:44.86) was the fastest, as was the first six furlongs (1:09.25). Monarchos, about two lengths behind the leaders at the quarter pole, drew clear of Congaree inside the eighth pole to win going away. Monarchos ran the final quarter-mile in about :24.50, which is racehorse time. And Monarchos was the only one really doing any running in the stretch.

Where Monarchos fits in the big picture will be better understood around 6:10 p.m. EDT on May 19.

Best guess here is that he has a 50-50 chance to win the Preakness. Then, again, I thought Point Given would win the Derby.