Log In to Thoroughbred Times

 



Don't have an account? Join Thoroughbred Times now!

Posted: Saturday, March 17, 2001

On with the show already

The buildup to this year's Kentucky Derby has been slow getting started

Maybe it's just me, but the buildup to this year's Triple Crown has all the excitement of a six-horse, nonwinners-of-two allowance race at Santa Anita Park. Hey, the way things are going, the Kentucky Derby (G1) may turn out to be a six-horse race.

Okay, the field will not be that slim, but Triple Crown fever so far would not classify as a low-grade bug.

This is our way of saying that it is hard to get enthusiastic about this year's crop of three-year-olds. The reason for this sentiment is fairly easy to identify. We do not have a good feel for many-if any-of the horses.

That is because collectively they have not started enough times to make an impression on even the most devoted racing fan. We do not really know how good they are nor do we have a sense of how good they can be. To be passionate about a horse, most people select one they can identify as being special or having the chance of being special. But that tag has not been pinned on many three-year-olds of the current class.

But, again, that is because their ability has not been displayed very often. Going into the weekend of the Florida Derby (G1), the top 20 contenders from the Thoroughbred Times Road to the Triple Crown on our Web site have started an average of 1.6 times in 2001. In fact, the pro-tem Kentucky Derby favorite, Point Given, has yet to start this year. Only two of the top 20 have started more than twice this year. And one of those two, Crafty C. T., is not regarded by his trainer as a possible Derby starter.

The pickings are so slim for our voters trying to find Kentucky Derby candidates that several others in the top 20, such as Burning Roma, are not being considered for the Derby.

Depth of any crop is usually measured from the top, and, again, by that measure, this year's three-year-old class still leaves many questions unanswered. The top five Derby contenders-Point Given, Millennium Wind, Dollar Bill, Street Cry (Ire), and Hero's Tribute-have started this year just four times combined going into the weekend of March 10-11. Three of those horses were entered in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 11, while Street Cry is being prepared for the UAE Derby (UAE-G3) in Dubai and has made one start this year.

Point Given, if he makes it into the starting gate for the Derby, will most likely have just two starts in 2001 prior to the first Saturday in May. Of the next five contenders-Songandaprayer, Outofthebox, Monarchos, A P Valentine, and Palmeiro-only one (Songandaprayer) has won a stakes race this year going into Florida Derby weekend. And only one of the others (A P Valentine) won a stakes race as a two-year-old.

Their relative inactivity this year was not presaged from their activity at age two. In 2000, the top 20 contenders started an average of 3.8 times, with the low being zero starts (Crafty C. T.) and the high 11 starts (City Zip). Last year, the average two-year-old started 3.5 times.

Nor has attrition been greater than normal among Derby contenders from last year's leaders, as based on the Experimental Free Handicap. Of the top ten male highweights on the Experimental Free Handicap of 2000, highweighted Macho Uno (126 pounds) and Arabian Light (120) are not in training, Flame Thrower (123) is back in training after surgery but will not be ready for the Derby, and sprinter Yonaguska (120) is currently racing but is not nominated to the Triple Crown.

So, why does it seem as though there aren't many good horses this year? Maybe because it is not that strong of a crop to begin with. Or maybe it is due to the lack of television exposure for the prep races this year, giving fans fewer chances to see the Derby contenders.

Or, just perhaps, it is not really unlike any other year: There are always countless questions about the new crop of three-year-olds that cannot be answered until the fall, when they meet older horses, or even later, when they turn four.

Maybe the spring fever at work is impatience. Show thyself, three-year-olds.


Mark Simon is editor of Thoroughbred Times.
Email | Print

Commentary


E-Mail this article | Print this article
Enter Mare: