Fewer horses cataloged to the Keeneland July sale will help maintain the lofty average

The Keeneland July selected yearling sale is getting more select each year. Consignors, though, have largely been responsible for this increased selectivity. Keeneland Association, in fact, had initiated a promotional campaign this spring to encourage breeders to nominate their yearlings to the July sale, but the number of horses that wound up in the catalog, 164, is the lowest in the history of the sale.

The 164 cataloged for the July sale represents just 0.45% of the estimated 36,700 foal crop of 2000. Ten years ago, the 317 yearlings cataloged represented 0.72% of the 1990 foal crop of 44,143. In 1981, the 389 yearlings cataloged represented 1.1% of the 1980 foal crop of 35,679. And 30 years ago, the 345 yearlings represented 1.4% of the 1970 foal crop of 24,361.

The 2001 catalog, then, has about one-third as many selected yearlings as 30 years ago and half as many as 20 years ago.

The decline in the number of horses cataloged is related to the increased popularity of fall sales for yearlings, most notably Keeneland's own September sale. At its September sale in 2000, Keeneland sold 3,313 yearlings for total receipts of $292-million.

The Keeneland July sale, though, has long held a special place in the minds of industry participants. While they may not represent a realistic portrait of the industry, the sale's lofty average and multimillion-dollar yearlings give owners and breeders a picture of how the top end of the market is valued, helping determine stud fees and stallion syndication valuations.

The Keeneland July sale began its sharp ascendancy in popularity in the early 1970s, bolstered by the success of such sale graduates as Sir Ivor and Nijinsky II. It attracted strong foreign interest and in the 1970s became the province of Robert Sangster's high-priced-yearling-to-high-priced-stallion gambit. In the early 1980s, the Keeneland July sale signaled the arrival of the Maktoums as serious players in racing and breeding.

Since 1984, when the average price was $544,681 and $176-million worth of yearlings were sold at the sale, the Keeneland July sale has slowly seen diminishment in the number of horses cataloged.

This selectivity, initially exercised on the part of Keeneland, has helped maintain the high average price. Last year, when just 0.57% of the crop was cataloged for the Keeneland July sale, the average price, $621,015, was the highest in history.

And how does that compare historically? When adjusted for inflation, the 1990 average of $352,009 is $755,709 in current dollars. The 1980 average of $196,863 is $897,553 in current dollars. The 1984 average, $544,681, is $927,373 in current dollars. The 1970 average of $30,152 is $137,471 in current dollars.

Part of the decline in the number of horses being consigned to the sale can be attributed to the prolific purchases of the Maktoums and their acquisition of quality bloodstock. In purchasing more than 600 Keeneland July yearlings alone and buying hundreds of top mares from commercial breeders over the last decade and a half, the Maktoums effectively removed from the commercial market yearlings that would have been sold at selected sales.

Another factor contributing to the decline in number of horses consigned to the Keeneland sale is how horses are being campaigned early in their careers. Over the last 30 years, there has been an appreciable decline in the percentage of horses starting at age two. In 1970, 42.4% of the 1968 foal crop made at least one start at age two. By 1980, the percentage of two-year-old starters from foals dropped to 36.7%. In 2000, it declined further, to 31.4%.

Whether it is because horses are maturing later or owners and trainers are allowing young horses more time to develop, consignors today generally are also more patient with their young stock.

Still, the Keeneland July yearling sale has been a bellwether for the vitality of the yearling market for decades and figures to be in the future, no matter how many yearlings are offered.

So, while the decline in number of yearlings being offered at the Keeneland July sale may be somewhat disconcerting to Keeneland officials, when July 16 rolls around, everyone will turn to the sale and view the results as a proxy for the health of the commercial marketplace. The more things change, the more they remain the same.