Every wise guy has an opinion on who will win the Kentucky Derby

Racing, being a betting game, draws out the wise guys. In the spring, these guys become particularly obnoxious because everyone is an expert on the Kentucky Derby (G1). Well, count me in (credentials are not needed in this game, by the way).

Handicapping the Derby used to be a little easier before last year. For 20 years, you could narrow the field by throwing out the favorite. (Any time you can narrow the field, by even one, it helps.)

Last year, Fusaichi Pegasus defied all odds (he went off at 2.30-to-1) and won as the favorite. Now you have to consider everyone. (Even the best horse.)

This year's crop of three-year-olds appears to be a pretty good one. (Okay, just a little more than a month ago, I wrote that this year's crop was uninspiring, but ignore that.) In fact, the division leaders are very consistent and have separated themselves from the rest of the crop (see the Triple Crown Preview that begins on page 21). The major prep races for the Derby have yielded definitive results and few surprises.

While anything can happen on the first Saturday in May (theoretically, anyway), we see the race shaping up as the haves versus the have-nots. The have-nots, short of pulling off the biggest upset since Charismatic way back in 1999, do not appear to have much chance of breaking into the top two or three places on May 5.

The 2001 Kentucky Derby comes down to five horses: Point Given, Millennium Wind, Monarchos, Congaree, and Balto Star. Those five should have the most say in the pace of the race, how the race is run, when each of their rivals makes their move, and, most importantly, the finish.

In races in 2000 and 2001, form among the top horses has been very consistent. Point Given defeated Millennium Wind in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) in December and then won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his only two starts this year.

Millennium Wind, after losing the Hollywood Futurity by just one length in his second career start, has won two of his three races in 2001, taking the Santa Catalina Stakes (G2) and the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). His loss was in the Louisiana Derby (G2) to Fifty Stars, and he was hampered by foot problems in his preparation for that race.

Monarchos was still a maiden entering his three-year-old season but has quickly risen to the top tier of the division. He won his maiden victory in his sophomore bow, took an allowance race, and then won the Florida Derby (G1) in his stakes debut. He ran a good race on a speed-favoring track to finish second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2).

Congaree is much like Monarchos: He was a maiden entering the year and has shown rapid development and a lot of ability. After a maiden win in February and an allowance win in March, he stepped into stakes competition by winning the Wood Memorial.

Balto Star may be the enigma among the leading contenders, but all evidence suggests he can run. He took the track from his rivals to win the Turfway Spiral Stakes (G2) easily and then did the same on an off track in the Arkansas Derby (G2). No matter what you may think of his competition in those races, Balto Star will be a major factor in the Derby. If any horse is capable of throwing in a Derby performance like Spend a Buck, it is Balto Star.

Rather than wait for the final prep race to be run, I will provide my selection for the 127th running of the Derby now. I don't need to see the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2). My mind is made up. Of course, if I said that in 1999 I would have missed seeing the eventual Derby winner, Charismatic, win the Lexington. I did wait that year to make my pick, saw Charismatic win, and threw him out anyway. I picked Desert Hero.

On the other hand, that is the only year I have missed since I started this annual exercise four years ago. I picked Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, Desert Hero in 1999, and Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. Not too bad, even for a wise guy.

This year? Point Given will win the Derby.