NEWS
Don't go out on a limb
Posted: Saturday, May 06, 2000
When choosing the Derby winner, make sure you give yourself some wiggle room
This is the time of year when everyone is an expert on horse racing. And anyone actually involved in racing is really an expert. This is an annual rite of spring.
We profess that we have little expertise in handicapping (successful handicapping, anyway) but fall prey to the temptation to make it seem as though we know more than we do when asked by someone completely outside of racing, "Who do you like in the Kentucky Derby (G1)?"
That innocent question is inviting, for we do cover racing year-round and should know something, if only a little more than the average person on the street.
Answering such a simple question can be potentially damaging.
For example, if at any time in the last 20 years you had suggested that the Derby favorite could not lose (pick a favorite, any year, since Spectacular Bid in 1979) and that a second mortgage to finance such a bet would be prudent, conservative, and smart, you would have lost a friend for life. Worse, you would have lost the title of expert!
So you have to be careful how you phrase things. Being evasive and obscure is how stockbrokers make a living and stay in business despite having no knowledge of where the market or any individual stock is going at any given time. They cover up by using some technical buzzwords. When they do not like a stock, they say they are "neutral." When they like a stock, they say "accumulate." They avoid saying anything outright, like "buy" or "sell," for fear of being understood and held accountable.
So the next time someone asks you about a horse in the Kentucky Derby, you should consider taking a page from your friendly broker.
For instance, when someone comes up to you and says, "I really like Deputy Warlock to win the Derby. I'm thinking about taking out a second mortgage and betting everything I have on him. What do you think?" you can say, "Well, I'm neutral on him right now. I'd have to look at his charts. If he's breaking out of a double bottom and is above his 200-day moving average, I think I would have a better understanding of where he's at. You may want to check into his workouts, and see if there is a head-and-shoulders pattern there. If there is, it may mean something."
If, on the other hand, your friend says he likes the same horse that you happen to like, such as War Chant, then that also can be handled in a diplomatical manner so as not to threaten your expert ranking.
"I think War Chant is an accumulate at these odds," you can say. "You should make sure that his price does not get ahead of itself, and you may need to dollar-cost average in, to make sure you're not paying too much. A bet on him in the Derby future wagers, spread equally over the three pools, would accomplish that. Accumulating shares in him through that method makes a lot of sense. Also check to be sure he is not forming a double Beyer top with his speed figures, because that may mean something."
In keeping with the tradition of the last three years, in this space we want to offer our pick to win the 126th Kentucky Derby. Our record is not bad (otherwise we would not bring it up). In 1997, we selected Silver Charm (paid $10 to win). In 1998, we picked Real Quiet ($18.80). In 1999, we chose Desert Hero. That horse quickly brought us down to earth (13th of 19), but maybe we meant to say we were neutral on Desert Hero. I know we specifically did not use the word "accumulate."
This year's race has some very good three-year-olds, headed by Fusaichi Pegasus, High Yield, More Than Ready, and The Deputy (Ire). The winner should come from that group.
High Yield will be on or near the early pace, not the best place to be in the Derby. Few horses in the last several decades have won on the front end the whole way, and those who have had a clear early lead. With all the speed in this year's race, that most likely will not happen. Rating: neutral.
More Than Ready will be coming from just off the pace, and his race in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) against the track bias was very good. Whether he can stay the distance is the big question mark with him, but the fact that he is 0-for-4 at races at a mile or longer is not encouraging. Rating: neutral.
The Deputy is the gutsiest horse in the division, and he always runs his race. He has beaten High Yield but fallen to Fusaichi Pegasus. In the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he was able to overcome a relatively moderate early pace to run down War Chant. In the Kentucky Derby, he will have to come from farther back in a more crowded field. Rating: neutral.
Fusaichi Pegasus is one of the more talented horses to come into the Derby in years. He has the pedigree, ability, trainer, and proper running style. His only question mark is his temperament. If he becomes rattled by the crowd, he is in trouble. If not, he will win.
Wait, I can't say that. What I mean to say is that, if he does not become rattled, he has a chance to reach a new all-time high, provided the market does not tank. Rating: accumulate.
Mark Simon is editor of Thoroughbred Times.
