Breeders' Cup XVII provided exciting races, nice payoffs, and a lot of questions about Horse of the Year

So much for the Breeders' Cup convincingly settling the 2000 Horse of the Year debate.

On a day that had something for just about everyone, Breeders' Cup XVII at Churchill Downs on November 4 was a feast for racing fans and handicappers-but hardly a treat for purists and those who like things tied up in neat little bundles. Longshots came in with such frequency that Uncle Sam clearly had the best day.

Nobody keeps such statistics, but it is easy to suggest that more IRS forms for high-odds gambling winnings were filled out on the November 4 card at Churchill than on any other card in history.

On the ten-race card that encompassed the eight Breeders' Cup races, there was a $114,156 pick three, a $109,631.40 pick three, and other pick threes paying $2,339.40 and $984; superfectas that paid $99,813.00, $8,148.50, and $8,076.80; an exacta that paid $940.60; trifectas that paid $6,405.20 and $18,355.80; and, well, you get the idea. Payoffs like those happen when Spain wins the Distaff (G1) at odds of 55.90-to-1, Caressing wins the Juvenile Fillies (G1) at odds of 47-to-1, and a host of longshots fill the place and show spots in the eight Breeders' Cup races.

What that usually means is that the races were incredibly competitive or not very formful. We go by the former theory. It was a card that featured a lot of evenly matched races. How competitive? Let's pose this question: Take any one horse out of each of the eight races, and would the day have been diminished much, if any? You could say that a scratch of Fusaichi Pegasus from the Classic (G1) would have detracted from the event, but the loss of no other horse from any of the races would have diminished the day.

Despite the seeming procession of longshots and high payoffs, the results will prove to be fairly typical for a Breeders' Cup. At the end of the day, at least four and possibly six of the race winners will likely win Eclipse Awards. That is on par with past Breeders' Cups. Certain to be voted champions are Kona Gold, sprinter; War Chant, turf male; Perfect Sting, turf female; and Macho Uno, juvenile male. Caressing, juvenile female, and Tiznow, three-year-old male, may also win championship honors.

Horse of the Year, however, is a muddled picture. With the losses of Riboletta (Brz) in the Distaff and Fusaichi Pegasus and Lemon Drop Kid in the Classic, the three horses deemed most likely to earn Horse of the Year honors with a win on Breeders' Cup day all went down to defeat. And not even good defeats; none of them were factors in their races.

That leaves voters searching for clues as to what Horse of the Year really means. Is it the best horse on Breeders' Cup championship day? Is it the best horse during the entire 12 months? Is it the best horse at the American classic distance of 1 1/4 miles on dirt?

Since the inception of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, the eventual Horse of the Year won a Breeders' Cup race nine times. Six times the Horse of the Year won the Classic, and once each the Horse of the Year emerged from the Turf (G1) (Kotashaan [Fr]); Juvenile (G1) (Favorite Trick); and Distaff (Lady's Secret).

Only twice has the eventual Horse of the Year emerged from a losing effort in the Breeders' Cup (Skip Away in 1998 and Cigar in '96).

With all serious candidates for Horse of the Year competing on Breeders' Cup day, voters are left to decide which direction they will go, with a race winner or loser.

Riboletta, gamely supplemented by her owner, likely lost any chance she had with her defeat. She has five Grade 1 victories to her credit, but there is a bias among voters against females being Horse of the Year unless they are far superior in a weak year or have defeated males.

Fusaichi Pegasus was the most celebrated horse of the year, but he won just one Grade 1 race, the Kentucky Derby.

Lemon Drop Kid was the best older male, but he tailed off when it mattered in the championship season.

Tiznow came on strong in the fall, defeating older horses twice, but he did not win his first stakes until July.

However, if you are looking for the best horse on Breeders' Cup day at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles, Tiznow fits the bill.