NEWS
As expected, 2011 foal crop numbers down
Posted: Thursday, September 15, 2011 11:15 AM
by Frank Angst
According to its live foal report released Thursday, the Jockey Club expects a 10% smaller North American foal crop in 2011 compared with 2010.
The continued down-sizing was expected, as 2011 marks the sixth straight season foal numbers will fall. The 2005 foal crop was up 1% compared to 2004, reaching 38,361, but numbers have dropped each year since, down to a projected 27,000 live foals for this year. The Jockey Club expects the numbers to continue to fall in 2012.
“The decline in breeding activity in recent years has resulted in a downward trend for live foal returns that is expected to continue next year, based on our recently announced foal crop estimate of 24,700 for 2012,” said Matt Iuliano, The Jockey Club’s executive vice president and executive director.
In figures released Thursday, the Jockey Club said 23,558 live foals had been reported through September 7. That figure, believed to be about 85% complete as more reports are expected, is down 13.8% compared with last year at this time when 27,233 reports had been received.
The Jockey Club’s 2011 estimate of 27,000 foals would be down 10% compared with last year’s 30,000 estimate and down 29.6% compared with the 2005 foal crop. The projected foal crop for 2011 would be the smallest since the 1970s and the projection is in line with the 1973 foal crop of 26,810.
The Jockey Club reports 2,904 stallions covered 44,184 mares in North America during 2010, according to statistics compiled through Sept. 7, 2011. The number of stallions declined 7.2% from the 3,130 reported for 2009 at this time last year, while the number of mares bred decreased 10.6% from the 49,404 reported for 2009. The Jockey Club has received 3,731 No Foal Reports for the 2011 season.
Iuliano emphasized the breeding statistics are not a measurement of the live foals born in each state or province, but rather a count of live foals by conception area, regardless of where the foals were born. He also stressed that the statistics should not be taken to represent the final fertility record of any single stallion or conception area.
Kentucky annually leads all states and provinces in terms of Thoroughbred breeding activity. Kentucky-based stallions accounted for 39.4% of the mares reported bred in North America in 2010 and 47% of the live foals reported for 2011.
The 17,401 mares reported bred to 284 Kentucky stallions in 2010 have produced 11,065 live foals, a 14.4% decrease on the 12,931 Kentucky-sired live foals of 2010 reported at this time last year. The number of mares reported bred to Kentucky stallions in 2010 declined 9.6% against the 19,252 reported for 2009 at this time last year.
Among the top 10 conception areas for live foals of 2011, only Ontario and Oklahoma stallions produced more live foals in 2011 than in 2010 as reported at this time last year. The top ten went Kentucky, 11,065 live foals reported; California, 1,762; Florida, 1,565; Louisiana, 1,516; Pennsylvania, 790; New York, 752; Ontario, 732; New Mexico, 660; Texas, 580; and Oklahoma, 545.
Leading stallions by 2011 foals reported are Giant’s Causeway at 161, Malibu Moon, at 144, and Candy Ride (Arg), at 142. All three stand in Kentucky.
Frank Angst is senior writer for Thoroughbred Times
