by Jeff Lowe
With a third Grade 1 victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) on October 3, Summer Bird made a strong statement to be the favorite, at least of the American-based horses, in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) on November 7 at Santa Anita Park.
Summer Bird had already joined Rachel Alexandra as the only horses with more than one Grade 1 win in route races on dirt or synthetic tracks this year. Mine That Bird and Richard’s Kid will each have a chance to join that list in the Goodwood Stakes (G1) on Saturday at Santa Anita Park, but one of them would have to deliver a dominant performance to have the edge on paper in the Classic.
After beating older horses decisively in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, the one box that Summer Bird has yet to check off is the surface question that figures to be magnified more and more each day as the Classic approaches.
The Birdstone colt is scheduled to be shipped to Santa Anita on October 12, which will give him a little less than four weeks to adjust to the Pro-Ride surface there. Summer Bird will be on familiar ground, since he trained at Santa Anita for several months as a two-year-old, prior to his debut on the dirt at Oaklawn Park this winter.
Runner-up Quality Road might be the only other horse from the Jockey Club Gold Cup who would advance to the Classic. Macho Again, the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) winner, did not fire in his first start following a game second-place finish to Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward Stakes (G1). He also finished off-the board in his two career starts on synthetic tracks.
Macho Again’s owner, West Point Thoroughbreds, could take another crack at the Classic with Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap (G2) winner Awesome Gem, but he may not be at his best on a synthetic track either. Awesome Gem finished third at a big price in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at sloppy Monmouth Park, and he scored his first stakes win in more than two years in the Hawthorne Gold Cup over a muddy track.
Last year, Awesome Gem finished sixth on the Santa Anita grass in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1).
The key development in assembling the Classic will be the decision on the status of Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) winner Sea The Stars, who would be a strong standout on both paper and as a reigning superstar, if he were to make the trip from Ireland.
Trainer John Oxx acknowledged to At The Races on Monday morning that the Breeders’ Cup falls “a bit late in the year … but we’re not going to rush into a decision and we’ll have a discussion about it.”
Jockey Mick Kinane was skeptical after the Arc.
“His coat has gone,” Kinane said. “He's got hairy today and you can see he got warm. I don't know what John and the owners have in mind. Does he need to achieve anything more? I don't know. It's questionable. He's a phenomenal horse. You'd hate to do anything wrong by him.”
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has a strong duo to help fill that potential void, after Mastercraftsman aced his audition in the Diamond Stakes (Ire-G3) on October 2 at Dundalk and joined Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Eng-G1) winner Rip Van Winkle for the Classic.
Rip Van Winkle could vie for the favorite’s role, especially since the Queen Elizabeth II produced the top two finishers last year, but Summer Bird may get the nod with his proven record at 1 1/4 miles. Rip Van Winkle has scored his two Group 1 wins at a mile. He finished second by a length to Sea The Stars in the Coral-Eclipse Stakes (Eng-G1) at 1 1/4 miles and fourth in the Epsom Derby (Eng-G1) at 1 1/2 miles.
Zenyatta also would have a major presence in the Classic if her connections decide to head that direction following her start on Saturday in the Lady’s Secret Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita. Zenyatta is undefeated, and she would be on her home court while facing males for the first time, but she has never been past 1 1/8 miles.
Jeff Lowe is a Thoroughbred Times staff writer