Ragozin Insider:
Jockey Club Gold Cup

by Bob Ehalt

In most races, a keen understanding of handicapping and tools such as Ragozin speed figures are usually the key elements in selecting a winner.

Yet in the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) today at Belmont Park you need to add one other item to the list: a degree in meteorology.

Weather looms an important factor in deciding how to allot your wagering dollars in the 1¼-mile centerpiece event of Belmont Park’s Super Saturday program.

With thunderstorms in today’s forecast, a wet track could add a perplexing wrinkle to the mix. While Summer Bird, the 2-to-1 favorite on the morning line, notched his career-best Ragozin figure on a sloppy track, the possibility of dark skies clouds the outlook for the 5-to-2 second choice, Quality Road.

Heading into last month’s Shadwell Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course, Quality Road stood as the year’s fastest three-year-old male with a line of ¼-2-2. Then he plodded home third behind Summer Bird over a soaked racetrack that was labeled sloppy.

Quality Road ran a 6¾ in the Travers, raising several questions. Was that performance due to the wet track, or the mile-and-a-quarter distance, or was his career top of ¼ in the Amsterdam Stakes (G2) so draining that it sparked a downward spiral?

If it was the track, five weeks of rest since the Travers could be avenue that brings him back to a 2—which should be good enough to win the Gold Cup. Of course, Mother Nature may not let him see a dry track.

“Who knows what to make of Quality Road,” said Len Friedman, a partner with Ragozin Thoroughbred Data. “A wet track doesn’t figure to help him, but mud at Saratoga is different from mud at Belmont, so maybe he’ll handle this time. I certainly would have more confidence that he could bounce back on a dry track, but I wouldn’t want to toss him strictly because of mud, either.”

As handicappers keep tabs on the barometric pressure in Elmont, New York, there are far less variables with Summer Bird. He posted his career top of 2¾ in the Travers and ran a 4¼ before that in the muck at the Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1). Rain or shine, with five weeks off since the Travers, the Belmont Stakes winner (G1) rates the nod as the horse most likely to win the race and the one who can be used with the most confidence as a key in the exotics.

 “Summer Bird has a very strong pattern,” Friedman said. “His numbers have been very good on wet and dry tracks.”

An off-track also complicates how to use Macho Again, the 7-to-2 third-choice. Macho Again is coming off a career top of 1½ in the Woodward Stakes (G1) and he had a history of react to powerful figures. That changed when he advanced from a career-best 3 in the Whitney Handicap (G1) to the 1½ in the Woodward. Conventional thinking says the strain of the new top will bring out the old Macho Again and he’ll bounce once more. Yet he owns a pair of wins in his two wet track starts and maybe mud will enable the new and improved and forward-moving Macho Again to stick around for one more race.

Weighing both possibilities, his odds make siding with him difficult.

 “I’d say Macho Again will run a 3 or worse and unless his odds soar, you can’t play him at a short price,” Friedman said.
Elsewhere in the field of seven, the two longshots carry some appeal in the exotics, despite picking up ten pounds or more pounds off their last start.

Tizway, the 15-to-1 outsider, has a line of 6¼-4¼-7½-4¼ in his last four races and another forward move to the 4 or better could put him in the mix for a spot in the trifecta.

Sette E Mezzo, at 12-to-1, has what might be considered one of the better buried figures you’ll ever see. In seven of his nine career starts, he raced on turf and has been running 6s and 7s lately. But back in March 2008, in his career debut, he recorded his career top of 5½ while finishing third in a seven-furlong maiden race on the dirt at Gulfstream Park. If dirt once again brings out the best in him, he too could pump up the exotics.

Of course, he’s a mystery in mud, which seems rather fitting for this edition of the Gold Cup.

‘Furthest’ was fastest

The results of last week’s Kentucky Cup Classic (G2) provided some good news for the top three finishers as well as followers of the Ragozin Insider.

Listed as the best value in the prerace analysis, Furthest Land at 6.20-to-1 odds took the Classic by neck while earning a Ragozin speed figure of 4

That gave him a line of 4-7½-4-5½, which is weak for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Yet with five weeks rest, he could move forward against lesser competition in a race like the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) (shouldn’t it be Synthetic Surface this year?) and be a borderline threat for the exotics.

Dubious Miss was second and posted a 5. Sligovitz, who was third, also chalked up a 4 and now has a promising and forward-moving line of 4-5-8¼-9½.

Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes outlook 

For more information on Ragozin speed figures, go to www.thesheets.com.