Ragozin Insider (9/25):
Breeders’ Cup Classic

by Bob Ehalt

There are times in handicapping a race when it’s best to put your fate in the hands of others, such is the case

Let them bet, and then tear off in the opposite direction in search of value.

The $200,000 Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes (G2) on Saturday at Turfway Park offers, yes, a classic example of that philosophy.

Looking over the field of nine, there’s a heavy favorite in Hold Me Back, the 7-to-5 morning-line choice. Yet, when you add Ragozin speed figures to the mix, the favorite is anything but a standout. He’s only marginally better than several of the others, creating an excellent wagering opportunity--if you can sift through an array of similar figures and weak patterns and find the right alternative.

Making matters more complex, the aforementioned favorite, Hold Me Back, is a tough horse to read. He posted a career top of a 5 while finishing second on the synthetic Polytrack surface in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland Race Course. Then he plummeted to a 13 on a sloppy dirt track in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1).

Hold Me Back returns to Polytrack off a surprising runner-up finish in the Shadwell Travers Stakes (G1) on August 29 when he registered another 5 on a dirt track rated as sloppy. Those figures make him the most likely winner, yet will he react to a career top off just three weeks rest like he did in the Derby? Or has the three-year-old Giant’s Causeway colt matured with the fall at hand? And what about his first powerful showing on dirt? Was it a fluke or a sign that he’s in career form and ready to forge a new top on his preferred surface?

Those are a lot of questions for a small price on the tote board.

The 7-to-2 second choice, Dubious Miss, also offers a mixed bag to handicappers. He matched his career-best figure with a 4½ on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs three starts ago. A 16 and, most recently, a 7 while second in the Washington Park Handicap (G3) on September 5 at Arlington Park followed. He could circle back to the 4 and win, yet with just three weeks rest, post-position nine, and his odds, he loses some of his appeal.

Right behind them are several horses with relatively similar figures, meaning it might be wise to scan the odds in search of an overlay.

Using the morning line to shine a light on value in the race, that role could be played by Furthest Land, who is listed at 6-to-1.

The Michael Maker-trained Smart Strike gelding reeled off six straight starts in which he either moved forward or paired his figure until he slipped from a career top of a 4 in a stake at Indiana Downs to a 7½ while checking in fourth as the even-money favorite in the Claiming Crown Jewel Stakes on July 25 at Canterbury Park in his most recent start. With two months rest since, Furthest Land could be poised to move forward again at a nice price.

Speaking of price, Jazz in the Park deserves some consideration as a speculative play. He’s priced at 30-to-1 and has never started on a synthetic surface. Yet with the ground-saving rail, a line of 7½-6½-4½ (all on grass) and more than two months rest to reverse the backward spiral, he could become an attractive play if the betting public ignores him. Assuming the Ecton Park colt can make a smooth transition from grass to Polytrack, all he needs to do is return to a 6 to be a factor in the race. There’s some risk in that, but 30-to-1 odds will certainly cover it.

Last week's major race, the $750,000 Super Derby (G2), did little to change the complexion of the major fall races. The winner, Regal Ransom, earned a 5, and the runner-up, Blame, registered a slightly faster 4.

Both are still slightly behind Summer Bird among three-year-olds colts and are in a different area code than Rachel Alexandra on her best day.