Ragozin Insider (9/5):
Breeders’ Cup Classic

by Bob Ehalt

For much of his career, Colonel John has been a perplexing runner and he holds the key to Sunday's Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) on Sunday.

A year ago, he won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) (video) then finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) (video). He was game and determined in taking the Travers Stakes (G1) (video) but subsequently was unplaced in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and Malibu Stakes (G1) (video).

In Sunday’s $1-million Pacific Classic, Colonel John will get yet another chance to reinvent himself as one of the top horses in the country.

Pegged as 5-to-2 morning-line favorite, the four-year-old Tiznow colt holds the key to handicapping Del Mar’s 1 1/4-mile race. In terms of Ragozin speed figures, Colonel John gets a slight nod as the most likely winner based on an outstanding comeback effort in his most recent race.

Running for the first time in seven months and trying turf for the first time, Colonel John posted a dazzling career-best Ragozin speed figure of 2 in taking the ungraded Wickerr Stakes at Del Mar (video). It was the fastest recent number by any of the 12 Pacific Classic entrants.  

Notching a new top off a layoff is usually a very positive sign in a horse’s development. Plus the correlation between grass and synthetic surfaces does not diminish the figure. But we are talking about Colonel John here, who always seems to grab mediocrity out of the jaws of greatness.

Another issue is his price. Wagering that a horse is on the upswing can be rewarding at the right odds, yet with a favorite, value must be weighed against the risk that the comeback effort was too strenuous.

“This race will answer the questions about Colonel John,” said Len Friedman, a partner with Ragozin Thoroughbred Data. “If he runs back to the 2 or goes forward, he’s one of the best horses around. If he reacts, then he’ll be what he was last year: one of the second level players. Off that last race, he’s a horse you have to respect and use him defensively in the exotics. But at the price, I can’t say there are overwhelming reasons to bet on or bet against him.”

Friedman voiced much more confidence about using Rail Trip, the 4-to-1 third choice. Unraced since taking the TVG/Betfair Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap (G1) in July (video), Rail Trip boasts a line of 4-8-4 in his previous three starts and has run several 4s previously. 

“He’s a consistent horse and looks very solid in this spot,” Friedman said.

Missing from the mix is the second choice on the morning line, Einstein (Brz), who Friedman is tossing out off a downward spiraling line of 8-5-1.

“That 1 three races ago [in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) (video)] looks like the end of the line for him,” Friedman said. “From post ten, I can’t see him running any better than somewhere between a 5 and an 8, and that’s not good enough.”

To pump some value into the exotics, Friedman says Mast Track, Richard’s Kid, and Global Hunter (Arg) have some merit.

Mast Track (15-to-1) has a line of 5-10-6 and ran some 4s last year, giving him room for improvement. Richard’s Kid (15-to-1) ran a 5 in his first start on a synthetic surface and only needs to take a small step forward to be a big factor today. Global Hunter (20-to-1) has been inching forward with a 6-7-8 and has some 3s last year, indicating he, too, could sneak into the superfecta picture at a nice price.

Looking over all of these numbers, though, Colonel John’s 2 clearly sticks out in what promises to be a very defining race for the four-year-old colt. Who knows?  Maybe his third litmus test will be the charm.