Ragozin Insider:
Breeders’ Cup Classic

by Bob Ehalt

For decades, Saratoga Race Course has been known as “The Graveyard of Favorites.”

Judging, though, by today’s $750,000 Woodward Stakes (G1), the New York Racing Association might as well as take that tag and pack it away, like they will with all of the track’s television monitors and picnic tables in a few days.

Saratoga may have met its match in Rachel Alexandra.

Although no filly has ever captured the prestigious Woodward, keeping Rachel Alexandra from her date with the history books appears to be a highly formidable challenge for the seven older males slated to face the superstar three-year-old. Betting against her seems folly, even at “The Graveyard.”

Analyzing the race through Ragozin speed figures, Rachel Alexandra has such a decided edge in the 1 1/8-mile Battle of the Sexes that her 1-to-2 morning-line price seems fair.

A winner of eight straight races, the Medaglia d’Oro filly has been reeling off Ragozin speed figures that are historic in their own right. Few horses of any age or sex have ever posted a line like Rachel Alexandra’s string of ¼, ½, 3¼, and ¼ in her previous four starts.

Given five weeks off since registering that ¼ in a six-length victory over Shadwell Travers (G1) and Belmont (G1) Stakes winner Summer Bird in the Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1), the electrifying filly has the kind of rest that bodes well for her chances of authoring yet another near-zero figure.

Meanwhile, the quickest of her challengers seem capable of running, at best, a 3—and that gap widens when you factor in her eight-pound weight allowance. That spread in weights—118 pounds for her, 126 pounds for them—is worth a little more than a point for the Stonestreet Stables filly—not that she needs it, mind you.

With such a heavy and deserving favorite in the picture, finding value in the race is tantamount to the discovery of the Holy Grail. Bullsbay, the 6-to-1 second choice, makes that quest even less inviting.

Winner of the Whitney Handicap (G1) in an 18-to-1 stunner, Bullsbay posted a new career top of 3½ that day. While he had not run better than a 5½ before that in 2009, he paired his previous top of 4½ off short rest last year. If that happens again, get ready for an exacta payoff of about $5.

Gamblers could toss out 8-to-1 third-choice Macho Again, who notched a career top of 3 in the Whitney and has bounced off that figure twice before. But even with him out of the picture, co-third-choices It’s a Bird and Asiatic Boy (Arg), have been running 3s and 4s, respectively, and do not figure to inflate the exotic payoffs much.

If there is a value play, it probably would be Past the Point, the 15-to-1 outsider who has a distinct fondness for Saratoga.

A year ago, Past the Point notched a 3¾ in a Spa allowance race and then paired that number when he came back to run second to another Stonestreet superstar, Curlin, in the Woodward at odds of 40-to-1. Twelve months later, Past the Point earned a 3½ in a Saratoga allowance race and an encore would put him in the mix for second money.

Do not even bother looking for 40-to-1 this time, yet, if he does go off as the outsider in the wagering, he could be the one who helps the exacta or trifecta pay enough so on-track patrons can cover a soda, hot dog, and fries—provided they forget about “The Graveyard” and use Rachel Alexandra on top.

A difficult ‘Road’ ahead

Although the Travers might have pushed Summer Bird to the head of the class among three-year-old males, the big story to come out of the race, from a Ragozin standpoint, was the disappointing third-place finish by Quality Road.

The 3-to-2 favorite came into the Travers off a minus-1/4 in the Amsterdam (G2) and a pair of 2s before that in the spring. Numbers like that put him in the fashionable company of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. In the Travers, however, he moon bounced to a 7.

Perhaps it was the muddy track that compromised his chances. If that minus-1/4 was a knockout number, however, you can forget about Quality Road returning to negative territory for quite a while.

Summer Bird, the 5-to-2 second choice, posted a 3 in winning the Travers, a small new top, and certainly he has the potential to continue edging forward in future starts.

Hold Me Back received a 5, matching his top. All in all, it was a solid effort by a runner who had done his best running in the past on synthetic surfaces.